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I think your friends were right. Peoples lives are not the same as a coin flip. You could almost surely say that whatever caused the accidents in the past has
by tingol 10y ago
I think your friends were right. Peoples lives are not the same as a coin flip. You could almost surely say that whatever caused the accidents in the past has been a point of focus for the agency specifically so it never happens again. You can't really apply your statistical thinking in that scenario.
- deleted 10y ago[deleted]
- amasad 10y agoMaybe they were but they actually statistically came to that conclusion. In the same sense that people think that given that it has been all heads for the past 10 flips then the chance it is tails is higher in the next (it's not) >You can't really apply your statistical thinking in that scenario. The main idea behind Bayes is that you can apply probabilistic reasoning to anything where you don't have complete knowledge (which means, short of 1+1, is everything)