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> On the other hand, even the simplest Bayesian analysis of determining the probability of heads in a coin flip requires some interesting integration and the so
by tgb 10y ago
> On the other hand, even the simplest Bayesian analysis of determining the probability of heads in a coin flip requires some interesting integration and the somewhat obscure Beta distribution.
Isn't this kind of misleading? The end result of the Beta distribution, etc. is just the extremely simple-to-compute Rule of Succession [1].
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rule_of_succession https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rule_of_succession
- jordigh 10y agoA bit, but in general, computing posterior distributions tends to very quickly lead to more complicated integrals. It just so happens that the Beta distribution is somewhat nice and symmetrical, if a bit obscure.
- XFrequentist 10y agoMore generally, this is why there's (still) a mild obsession with "conjugate" prior/likelihood distribution pairs - i.e. combinations of prior and likelihood that give analytically tractable posteriors[1] - despite the ability to get easily get results with MCMC. [1] Yes, everyone wants a nice posterior. You're very clever.