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The EU Commission has already said flat out there would have to be a new application. That application would certainly be vetoed by either the Spanish (catalan

The EU Commission has already said flat out there would have to be a new application. That application would certainly be vetoed by either the Spanish (catalan issues) or the Germans (Scotland has a bigger deficit than Greece).

ck425 10y ago
Perhaps, but it would be a different situation from a completely new country joining. The Spanish have back pedalled on their previous threats to do so. Not sure about Germany. I'm not say it would definitely happen, only that it would be an unprecedented situation so we can't rely on assumptions either way.
- fauigerzigerk 10y ago
  I agree. At this point all assumptions based on the status quo ante have to be treated with great caution. The Spanish may very well accept that the UK/Scotland situation is now different enough from their own that any contagion is unlikely.
kuschku 10y ago
The current mood portrayed by Berlin in German media is very pro-Scotland. And the mood of Madrid, too.
- sievebrain 10y ago
  If there's one thing we should all be learning from this it's that the 'respectable' media around the world is controlled by people who have little or nothing in common with large chunks of the population and simply cannot be trusted to reliably report on the matter of the EU. The non-tabloid media in the UK were almost united in the idea that leaving the EU was unthinkable, and even post-vote are now in a state of absolute denial about it. If you want to know what's really going on then the best tool available is still opinion polling (ideally combined with on-the-street interviews to get additional depth). Polling in Germany is showing rapidly rising anti-Euro feeling since August 2015, if we take AfD support as a proxy for "we don't want to bail out the feckless deficit countries anymore". AfD polling shifts are on a very smooth upward trajectory when averaged and the AfD is anti-Euro. Given this trajectory and the grumbling the Greek bailouts caused it would be very difficult to convince the Germans to allow the normal EU rules on deficits in joining countries to be broken: they are already slapping down suggestions from Italy that Brexit means austerity policies must be loosened. Why should Germans pay for the Scots?
fauigerzigerk 10y ago
Germany and many other EU countries (and also, by the way, most European citizens) want European integration to continue. If an advanced, liberal, english speaking country like Scotland declares its wish to remain or join the EU, that could be seen as a welcome vote in favor of the European idea. I think it is in Germany's (and Spain's) interest to woo Scotland and make it as easy as possible for them to remain in the EU or rejoin in a seamless fashion.
teh_klev 10y ago
Spain wouldn't block Scotland's entry to the EU, it comes down to fishing rights, amongst other things: "However there is another reason closer to the heart of the Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy that Spain won’t block Scottish accession to the EU. Interestingly, during the last independence referendum Rajoy was asked three times in an interview with El Pais newspaper whether he would veto Scotland, and three times he refused to reply. He refused to reply because he didn’t want to encourage Scottish independence by telling the truth. Mariano Rajoy comes from Galicia, and represents the city of A Coruña in the Spanish parliament, the Cortes. The mainstay of the local economy is the fishing industry, and big fishing interests are the main funders of Rajoy’s own local party. The Galician fishing fleet depends on its access to Scottish waters in order to feed Spain’s enormous appetite for seafood, and any attempt by Spain to veto Scottish membership of the EU would threaten that access. Rajoy would then find that his local party’s bank balance was as empty as the fish counter in a Spanish supermarket. He’s not going to let that happen." https://weegingerdug.wordpress.com/2016/06/25/an-argument-as-rank-and-rotten-as-a-two-year-old-fish/ https://weegingerdug.wordpress.com/2016/06/25/an-argument-as... See also: http://wingsoverscotland.com/what-mariano-rajoy-didnt-say/ http://wingsoverscotland.com/what-mariano-rajoy-didnt-say/

ck425 10y ago

Perhaps, but it would be a different situation from a completely new country joining. The Spanish have back pedalled on their previous threats to do so. Not sure about Germany. I'm not say it would definitely happen, only that it would be an unprecedented situation so we can't rely on assumptions either way.

fauigerzigerk 10y ago
I agree. At this point all assumptions based on the status quo ante have to be treated with great caution. The Spanish may very well accept that the UK/Scotland situation is now different enough from their own that any contagion is unlikely.

kuschku 10y ago

The current mood portrayed by Berlin in German media is very pro-Scotland. And the mood of Madrid, too.

sievebrain 10y ago
If there's one thing we should all be learning from this it's that the 'respectable' media around the world is controlled by people who have little or nothing in common with large chunks of the population and simply cannot be trusted to reliably report on the matter of the EU. The non-tabloid media in the UK were almost united in the idea that leaving the EU was unthinkable, and even post-vote are now in a state of absolute denial about it. If you want to know what's really going on then the best tool available is still opinion polling (ideally combined with on-the-street interviews to get additional depth). Polling in Germany is showing rapidly rising anti-Euro feeling since August 2015, if we take AfD support as a proxy for "we don't want to bail out the feckless deficit countries anymore". AfD polling shifts are on a very smooth upward trajectory when averaged and the AfD is anti-Euro. Given this trajectory and the grumbling the Greek bailouts caused it would be very difficult to convince the Germans to allow the normal EU rules on deficits in joining countries to be broken: they are already slapping down suggestions from Italy that Brexit means austerity policies must be loosened. Why should Germans pay for the Scots?

fauigerzigerk 10y ago

Germany and many other EU countries (and also, by the way, most European citizens) want European integration to continue. If an advanced, liberal, english speaking country like Scotland declares its wish to remain or join the EU, that could be seen as a welcome vote in favor of the European idea. I think it is in Germany's (and Spain's) interest to woo Scotland and make it as easy as possible for them to remain in the EU or rejoin in a seamless fashion.

teh_klev 10y ago

Spain wouldn't block Scotland's entry to the EU, it comes down to fishing rights, amongst other things: "However there is another reason closer to the heart of the Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy that Spain won’t block Scottish accession to the EU. Interestingly, during the last independence referendum Rajoy was asked three times in an interview with El Pais newspaper whether he would veto Scotland, and three times he refused to reply. He refused to reply because he didn’t want to encourage Scottish independence by telling the truth. Mariano Rajoy comes from Galicia, and represents the city of A Coruña in the Spanish parliament, the Cortes. The mainstay of the local economy is the fishing industry, and big fishing interests are the main funders of Rajoy’s own local party. The Galician fishing fleet depends on its access to Scottish waters in order to feed Spain’s enormous appetite for seafood, and any attempt by Spain to veto Scottish membership of the EU would threaten that access. Rajoy would then find that his local party’s bank balance was as empty as the fish counter in a Spanish supermarket. He’s not going to let that happen." https://weegingerdug.wordpress.com/2016/06/25/an-argument-as-rank-and-rotten-as-a-two-year-old-fish/ https://weegingerdug.wordpress.com/2016/06/25/an-argument-as... See also: http://wingsoverscotland.com/what-mariano-rajoy-didnt-say/ http://wingsoverscotland.com/what-mariano-rajoy-didnt-say/