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The Singularitarians aren't going to be too happy about that. They've been spending all their time getting ready for the Strong AI future built on the inevitab

The Singularitarians aren't going to be too happy about that. They've been spending all their time getting ready for the Strong AI future built on the inevitability of Moore's law and now it may never come. Maybe biotech will lead the next tech revolution. I can see people doing all sorts of unholy stuff with CRISPR. It's a technology though that, at least in the U.S, I can't see the regulatory agencies really supporting development of. It's almost too powerful of a technology. It's sort of how not much has happened in the way of nuclear power design lately. So much can go wrong with that technology that the regulatory agencies never approve anything. I wonder if we'll reach a point where all the socially acceptable technologies have been developed and technologies like advanced nuclear or radical CRISPR biotech that could take things to the next level are permanently forbidden because they are too powerful and dangerous.

monk_e_boy 10y ago
> Maybe biotech will lead the next tech revolution This. Almost certainly blending biological ideas with more traditional chip manufacturing. 3D chips, self healing, cooling integrated through the chip. Augmenting our brains with implants. Maybe even expanding parts of our brains.
Qwertious 10y ago
I think it's pretty obvious that raw computing power alone isn't enough to get True AI, and there's no guarantee we'll need a stupidly powerful processor for AI in the first place. Also, we mainly ignore parallelisation because it's hard to reason about, which makes it easy pickings for AI to improve on if we do need stupidly large amounts of computing power. Although if it's inherently linear we're just SOL I guess.
FeepingCreature 10y ago
Speaking as a singularitarian: The only thing that has stopped is free scaling of photolithography. Our most advanced computing systems fill the equivalent volume of a large snowflake. Scaling down is over; the future is scaling up and sideways. (Power consumption, price...) The only unit that ever really mattered is amortized flops per inflation adjusted dollar.

monk_e_boy 10y ago

> Maybe biotech will lead the next tech revolution This. Almost certainly blending biological ideas with more traditional chip manufacturing. 3D chips, self healing, cooling integrated through the chip. Augmenting our brains with implants. Maybe even expanding parts of our brains.

Qwertious 10y ago

I think it's pretty obvious that raw computing power alone isn't enough to get True AI, and there's no guarantee we'll need a stupidly powerful processor for AI in the first place. Also, we mainly ignore parallelisation because it's hard to reason about, which makes it easy pickings for AI to improve on if we do need stupidly large amounts of computing power. Although if it's inherently linear we're just SOL I guess.

FeepingCreature 10y ago

Speaking as a singularitarian: The only thing that has stopped is free scaling of photolithography. Our most advanced computing systems fill the equivalent volume of a large snowflake. Scaling down is over; the future is scaling up and sideways. (Power consumption, price...) The only unit that ever really mattered is amortized flops per inflation adjusted dollar.