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Is there a margin of error with a vote like this? Isn't it a direct count of people who want their opinion known? It isn't sampling and trying to figure out wha
by jimktrains2 10y ago
Is there a margin of error with a vote like this? Isn't it a direct count of people who want their opinion known? It isn't sampling and trying to figure out what everyone wants.
- ianai 10y agoI don't know about 'error' but there's definitely room for valid decision changes. You can take most things back within a grace period after signing the dotted line, after all.
- deleted 10y ago[deleted]
- jimktrains2 10y agoBut that isn't what this measured. Like how the US census is suppose to be an exact count of everyone on April 1; it may change due to births and deaths, but on that day (at some time) it is suppose to be exact. A vote is an exact count of the will of the people at a given time. There is no error. People can change their minds, but that isn't what the vote represent. That is, a vote is what people who chose to vote said they wanted, not a probabilist representation of what the people as a whole want.
- shawkinaw 10y agoGiven that people apparently keep changing their minds right up to voting day (indicated by polls), I think there is actually a lot of noise in the result.
- weezer 10y agoThat's assuming that people correctly know and express the opinion that they hold. Asking people directly is still somewhat of a noise signal. Also, the act of viewing the result of the vote seems to have changed people expressed opinions at least.
- Teever 10y agoWhile a margin of error is required for polls due to inherent limitations of accuracy and scale if your democratic institutions have a margin of error you're not doing democracy right.