I would challenge point 3. The Brexit campaign did make promises of future, where the Remain camp didn't. It's politics 101: highlight the positive. Remain sid

I would challenge point 3. The Brexit campaign did make promises of future, where the Remain camp didn't. It's politics 101: highlight the positive. Remain side was labelled "Project Fear" - all they talked about were the negative consequences of a brexit outcome. We know from fundamental psychology and game theory research people have different risk preferences for upside and downside. We also know from past political campaigns, that positive rhetoric is usually victorious. The confusing thing about this is that on the surface, it's the Leave side that appears negative. A big part of its message was anti-immigration, anti-modern-world, counting on xenophobia to get them the numbers. But they offered a promise of better. Take control. Things will change if you vote. All the Remain-side had to offer, were threats of things "getting even worse". They failed to see that the status quo was disappointing to a huge demographic, not something they felt desperate to maintain. If the future seems already grim, you might want to pick the carrot over the stick.