> That makes prediction markets non-falsifiable. No, it means you can't assess prediction markets, or any mechanism for making probabilistic predictions, from

> That makes prediction markets non-falsifiable. No, it means you can't assess prediction markets, or any mechanism for making probabilistic predictions, from a one-off event. I was responding to tobias3 regarding Brexit. > There's no way a prediction market mechanism can be self-correcting, because by the time you have real data the question is settled. You misunderstand. I'm not claiming that the market for a single event is self-correcting. I'm claiming that if someone discovers a bias in prediction markets as a whole (e.g., the pop-science biases discussed in the Economist article), then traders can profit off this bias and it will be removed from the market's prediction. There's a lot wrong with your other points, but it would take too much discussion to draw it out.