I'm not even that optimistic. First, one of the prime exports to the EU is financial services. Major financial flows -- even ones in Euros -- are largely done

I'm not even that optimistic. First, one of the prime exports to the EU is financial services. Major financial flows -- even ones in Euros -- are largely done through London. I can't imagine the remaining countries consenting to allowing that to happen in a non-EU country. Financial services would be excluded from a new agreement. The thing that makes the UK rich is that it was the de facto business and financial capital of the continent, and I don't see how that survives. Second, the new agreement will need to be approved by every remaining EU country. Some might come on board quickly either because their governments are Euroskeptic (Hungary, Poland) or because they'd rather not upset the current trade balance (Germany) Others have less reason to agree easily. Spain, for instance, wants Gibraltar back and wants money for all of the British retirees its health service is looking after. Ireland will want to be in the driver's seat for any decisions about its land border with the UK. The list goes on. I have a hard time seeing how any of this gets figured out in 2 years.