"Not working" means not assigning the correct probabilities to the outcomes over time with regard to the information available. The article mentions some of the

"Not working" means not assigning the correct probabilities to the outcomes over time with regard to the information available. The article mentions some of the biases which could cause this. Of course this is difficult to measure, because there are not enough natural experiments (i.e. 100x Brexit) and there are many variables at play here. We'll have to wait for papers with regards to Brexit + predicition markets for a more detailed analiysis, but still, for the time my trust in prediction markets is down a bit.