Trade wars/tariffs go unmentioned, yet they are probably the most important single issue for emerging markets. To the extent that brexit nurtures a reversal of

Trade wars/tariffs go unmentioned, yet they are probably the most important single issue for emerging markets. To the extent that brexit nurtures a reversal of global integration (and Donald Trump's "America first" platform portends the same risk), emerging markets will suffer tremendously. Wage competition first, and immigration second, are the most issues for those seeking reactionary Trump and Brexit solutions, and the target is squarely emerging markets. One needs only look at how the past 25 years of global integration has helped EM, to see the converse potential outcomes. A related issue is capital flow restrictions, and these are arguably even easier to put into force. Brexit is a major defeat for liberal "anglo saxon" free market policies, and there are many in the world who do not buy into them, including in the EU itself. Current account deficit countries such as Turkey and South Africa are heavily exposed, as is the dollar. This last point makes it unclear that the dollar is the obvious long term safe haven. Indeed Friday's Yen price action shows that currency as being potentially the most obvious candidate for a big rally, along with gold. The latter is particularly well placed if the G7 central banks, in full panic mode, begin to implement large further slugs of QE or negative interest rate policies.