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Will Brexit break Emerging Markets' back?
- SunMon 10y agoEM = Emerging Markets Best bet according to the article is on Middle Eastern markets
- Joeboy 10y agoThank you, I was thinking https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em
- oneeyedpigeon 10y agoI was wondering why fonts were going to be affected: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Em_(typography) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Em_(typography)
- tremon 10y agoThanks for that. Paging dang...
- Ma8ee 10y agoThank you! It would be great if someone could change the title to make it more understandable without looking the title.
- gjkood 10y agoI had to scroll three pages down to see the words 'emerging markets' in the article. Or maybe the title is referring to 'Emad Mostaque's (The author of the piece)' back. It would really be good not to use abbreviations in the title if it is not immediately clear what it is referring to in context. I understand it is just a copy of the original title.
- a_imho 10y agoThank you, at least he should have used the phrase in the title. Simple mistakes like this have a disproportionally great effect on me discarding the writer's opinion by default.
- danlindley 10y agoI'm really, really sorry to be that guy, and sorry to be somewhat off-topic but; "We are unlikely to see a full scale collapse, but uncertainty has definately increased and it is difficult to see how the genie will be put back in the bottle." Definitely. It's definitely.
- Spearchucker 10y agoIt's not the only one. We eke out, and don't eek out.
- coldtea 10y agoWell, unless we see a mouse.
- Bromskloss 10y agoI feel at liberty to speak candidly with you about these matters, and I'd like to hear your thoughts about that semicolon…
- wallace_f 10y agoPersonally, even though I also noticed the mistake, I don't really see the point to be honest. I wish I could trade whatever grey matter was trained for spelling intuition, and use it for something more interesting. I know people who can't spell better than an average sixth-grade student, but they are brilliant at what they do. You have to admit, spelling is at least somewhat arbitrary, especially in the English language. How do you spell 'centre,' for example?
- ThePhysicist 10y agoWhen thinking about these kind of problems I really wished we had some good -and publicly available- tools for simulating the world. While the predictions made by such a model would be most certainly wrong in most cases (the system is just too complex to be simulated reliably), it would allow us to narrow down the number of possible outcomes of a given political situation. This would make an interesting business case for a startup, and I can imagine that hedge funds and investors are already using such tools to their advantage, it would be hugely beneficial to have something like that for the general public to use though.
- coldtea 10y ago>When thinking about these kind of problems I really wished we had some good -and publicly available- tools for simulating the world. While the predictions made by such a model would be most certainly wrong in most cases (the system is just too complex to be simulated reliably), it would allow us to narrow down the number of possible outcomes of a given political situation. Actually it wouldn't. The world is more chaos theory than determinism in political scales.
- sago 10y agoSuch simulations don't assume determinism. A complex dynamic system will have evolutions that follow a probability distribution. The simulation should approximate the p.d., and that is useful information. We do this with weather, market forecasting, and physical modelling.
- coldtea 10y ago>Such simulations don't assume determinism. Chaotic systems (as in chaos theory) don't make predictions either, whatever the probability distribution. Too many factors and butterflies in Beijing. >We do this with weather, market forecasting, and physical modelling Don't know about physical modelling, but in weather and market forecasting we do it with dire results.
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- known 10y agohttps://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2187rank.html https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/... will give an idea Germany = $285,200,000,000 and United Kingdom = -$123,500,000,000
- woodpanel 10y agoWould you elaborate on how you'll think these numbers play out after Brexit? Isn't it a chicken-and-egg-problem and we can't just say: because Germany is producing and Britain is consuming, the latter will be worse off by Brexit? For many developed economies General Trade Agreements are the last straw of growth. And with Brexit both sides of the Channel loose. And another spin: A consumerist economy (US, UK) seems to have its own benefits, in that it can much easier survive on its own.
- dexterdog 10y agoI'm no world economy expert, but that sounds like the exit will be bad for Germany.
- vegabook 10y agoTrade wars/tariffs go unmentioned, yet they are probably the most important single issue for emerging markets. To the extent that brexit nurtures a reversal of global integration (and Donald Trump's "America first" platform portends the same risk), emerging markets will suffer tremendously. Wage competition first, and immigration second, are the most issues for those seeking reactionary Trump and Brexit solutions, and the target is squarely emerging markets. One needs only look at how the past 25 years of global integration has helped EM, to see the converse potential outcomes. A related issue is capital flow restrictions, and these are arguably even easier to put into force. Brexit is a major defeat for liberal "anglo saxon" free market policies, and there are many in the world who do not buy into them, including in the EU itself. Current account deficit countries such as Turkey and South Africa are heavily exposed, as is the dollar. This last point makes it unclear that the dollar is the obvious long term safe haven. Indeed Friday's Yen price action shows that currency as being potentially the most obvious candidate for a big rally, along with gold. The latter is particularly well placed if the G7 central banks, in full panic mode, begin to implement large further slugs of QE or negative interest rate policies.
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- paulpauper 10y agoJust more evidence America is still the best place to invest
- gkya 10y agoLeave is mostly the elder, remain is mostly the younger. And the younger will, albeit they voted remain, confront the effects for longer than the elder. Thus they have the right to react. Don't boil everything to denigration and human rights, if everybody hides behind the shield of some identity no discussion will happen. Keep your american -isms to yourselves, people need to debate, discuss and even fight and define the future of their people. I don't like watching the american politically-correctism and identity crises being exported overseas. This sort of protectism creates a deaf and blind democracy that is also very prone to logical errors in its thinking and decision making, and renders actual social problems irresolvable.
- crusso 10y agoNoting that different age groups tended to vote differently is not the problem. Nor is trying to understand why they voted how they did. It's the denigration of the people who were older. This article called them "grumpy", but I've seen worse. I've seen lots of other comments and articles that not only resorted to name-calling, but also tried to use the fact that people were older as prima facie evidence that their reasoning was bad.
- gkya 10y agoThe elder are not silenced, they can defend themselves. > but also tried to use the fact that people were older as prima facie evidence that their reasoning was bad. Like it or not (I don't like it either), but that may be an argument. Calling that denigration is the easy path out, but it leads nowhere. What has to be done is to refute it, however vulgar that might be. We're dealing with the results of a vulgar, uneducated, haphazard decision anyways.
- crusso 10y agoThe elder are not silenced, they can defend themselves. You could use that as an excuse for any sort of attack. In general, and especially here on HN, ad hominem is frowned upon.
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- tosseraccount 10y agoIndependece for Britain is a good thing. People didn't like the rigged trade agreement. It wasn't benefiting them. It was benefiting the elite in London. Cheap jobs may be good for the rich, but not for the working folk. Labor and Conservatives just didn't take the concerns of the majority seriously.
- physicalist 10y agoThe elite in London is still there, still the ruling class. what really did the elderly achieve?
- Brakenshire 10y agoLondon did the smallest amount of export trade with the EU of almost any area in the country. The regions that voted leave actually had far more reliance on EU trade.
- airesQ 10y agoThe UK currently has a great spot in the EU. It keeps it's own currency (a wise choice), it is not part of Schengen, it's fees are small for it's economy (e.g. Italy pays more), and all sorts of other exceptions. The next deal will not be as good. In fact it will be considerable worse. As the UK does not have any leverage. The EU can sort of manage without the UK. But the UK outside the EEA would be much, much poorer. The UK was on route to become Europe's biggest economy. But decided to follow a bunch of charismatic populists instead.
- gallonofmilk 10y ago"a bunch of charismatic populists"... you mean 52% of the voting electorate? populist - a thinly veiled swipe at a group of people perceived to be less intelligent and too stupid to know what's good for them.
- s_q_b 10y agoWith every area save England flatly stating that they would rather leave Britain than leave the EU, I think the consequences of this move are highly exaggerated. First, there is a real possibility that Britiain will not exit the EU at all. The referendum is actually non-binding in a legal sense. Parliament could vote to suspend it tomorrow. Another referendum could be held. The Privy Council could even intervene on its own authority. Second, Britain has yet to invoke Article 50 of the EU charter, which would formally begin the separation process. Despite the insistent (and foolish) efforts of the French and German governments for Britain to invoke Article 50 immediately, they have not done so, and thus remain an EU member in good standing. Third, there is a substantial body of evidence that a large portion of the "Leave" voters had no idea the consequences of their actions. The areas that have gathered, or will have gathered by week's end, as many signatures as the original Leave petition include; Scotland, Northern Ireland, Wales, and London. In short, almost all of the U.K., save rural and smaller cities in England proper. Northern Ireland is even holding talks with the Republic of Ireland to unite the island. Protest Northern Ireland frantically scrambling to join the Catholic Republic of Ireland, and receiving a tepid response, is something I never thought I would see in my lifetime. The nation of Britain is disintegrating into its constituent parts. Great Britain may never leave because there simply may not be a Great Britain any more. Finally, Britain's elite are already seeking to mitigate the effects of the referendum. Even if they hold their country together successfully, Britain will almost certainly seek a treaty to retain their economic rights while gaining some control over their immigration process. Let's not start burning the furniture yet. Britain was independent for most of the post-War period. The current panic may be merely the flip side of irrational exuberance.
- euroclydon 10y agoUK just raised the bet chasing a straight. The best course for their politicians is to present a united front, show strength and resolution in the people's decision, which is what I think Cameron is doing. Displaying public indecision is the worst thing they can do for their bargaining position. They need to hold out and hope other EU members have similar referendum results. Then, they'll be on the right side of this thing, and all the EU countries can begin to move forward on a renegotiated regime. A Trump win in November, or even the prospect of it, helps the UK now. The problem with this idea of an Anglo trade and defense block with US, UK, Canada and Australia though, is the US is not Anglo enough any more and Canada's PM is French and liberal. So they have to talk about freedom from regulations and such, and hope enough non-anglos buy in. It seems like the narrowest of paths to me. The US and their currency will remain strong only through immigration and decent birth rates. Closing the borders just won't work.
- fixxer 10y ago"Grumpy old people." Naive young people.
- hbogert 10y agoAgain that furiating table with the 18-24 aged persons voting for remain. Maybe also include the percentage to actually vote for those age group. 37% came to vote for 18-24y, vs 70% and up for 35y and up.
- rwmj 10y agoApparently your stats for turnout are wrong, ref: http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2016/06/how-did-different-demographic-groups-vote-eu-referendum http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2016/06/how-di...
- crusso 10y agoGrumpy old people I've noticed a fairly consistent and unmistakable thread of ageism in the brexit articles and discussions I've seen. It would be helpful if the denigration of classes of people weren't a part of the debate.
- tim333 10y agoThe article seems a bit of a muddle. He's talking about Emerging Markets. I'm not sure what breaking their backs is supposed to mean. He mentions the Nigerian Naria which fell last week when the government stopped pegging it and has nothing to do with Brexit. He figures commodities will go lower which I guess is likely. He kind of ignores Brexit leading to problems with European banks and a possible Grexit which seems much more of a problem.
- a_imho 10y agoHow can you know the age group of a secret vote? Statistics only get you so far that they showed Remain leading. "I only believe in statistics that I doctored myself"
- rwmj 10y agoIt's done using phone polls and interviews after the vote. You don't know if people are being truthful, but there's not a lot of reason to think that people would lie about how they voted shortly afterwards, at least not a statistically significant number of them.
- a_imho 10y agoThe fingerpointing going on is a good enough reason to obfuscate the data imo. Also, if it is used as a basis of assumptions it should have at least mention how the data was collected on what sample size. It is very easy to make a bias error. People might not be interested in the details, or it can be interpreted as sloppy journalism. Either way I'm not convinced (hence the reference to Remain).