4 ms·
You raise a lot of really important issues here. Let's take them one-by-one; data, algorithm, and user experience. Data: We've done a lot with our data pipeli
by bradfordcross 17y ago
You raise a lot of really important issues here.
Let's take them one-by-one; data, algorithm, and user experience.
Data:
We've done a lot with our data pipeline recently to ensure you have the best available information in real time and we are able to recover as quickly as possible if one of our data suppliers goes down or backs up temporarily. As to the international issue, we will get there in time, but it is not so simple. We want to get the US stronger first, and the international data sources are sparser and not the same as those we use already.
Algorithm:
We're working really hard on making our algorithm better and integrating new data sources as new features to learn from. We do a lot of very hard data transformation and feature extraction in order to get the feature vectors our models learn from. We just underwent a major overhaul of our Hadoop and Cascading infrastructure, and our research environment is setting us up to be able to do a lot of cool stuff now. You can find the code for our cascading lib here: http://github.com/clj-sys/cascading-clojure http://github.com/clj-sys/cascading-clojure
User Experience:
We wrestle with the kinds of issues you raise on a daily basis. It is tricky to have a user facing probabilistic model. As you point out, some folks look for certain outcomes, and don't do so well with probabilities. Others love to geek out on as much data as possible and want an even more fine grained information dashboard. It not easy to satisfy both groups with a single experience, although we're exploring different user experiences right now that try. As to the crowd sourcing, we've talked about social media integration, and it does seem like it would help people interact more to share the best current data with Flightcaster and our other users. Again, it comes do to the priorities and focus required at startups - we can't do it all at once.
- corruption 17y agoThe real question is: does flightcaster actually predict effectively? Would you be open to publishing the statistical analysis of your model so far? I'd certainly love to take a look at this. I don't want to see the algorithms you are using, but it would be nice to compare your model using MDL or other information criterions to other more simplistic models (e.g. simple geometric distribution predictions), and analyse it using standard statistical model diagnostics.