yes I know how sampling works. However as the uncertainty decreased, the prediction markets went in the wrong direction, rapidly on the last day and signficantl

yes I know how sampling works. However as the uncertainty decreased, the prediction markets went in the wrong direction, rapidly on the last day and signficantly in the last week. This strongly suggests that there is an element of "herding" going on by what are supposed to be rational, atomic, individual, actors (the first two of those three assumptions were violated by profit incenctive, and a non-secret ballot, respectively, it seems). Hence I stand by my view that the prediction markets turned out to be terribly poor. You will admit that as final polls all hovered around 50%, if accurate (and they seemingly were), prediction markets should have been wildly swinging between, say 25/75 and 75/25. They were not. They were trending consistenly lower for brexit.