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"As you travel down the tail of the probability distribution, rogue waves become ever stranger. Not only can their size and direction be unexpected, but they ca
by Aelinsaar 10y ago
"As you travel down the tail of the probability distribution, rogue waves become ever stranger. Not only can their size and direction be unexpected, but they can appear in some unlikely places."
I realize that next to the privations and risks of long sea voyages in ye olde days, the risk of a truly catastrophic rogue wave was slim. Still, the notion that you could have spent a lifetime on the seas, truly an expert with the right supplies and equipment... and you could still face a monster like the ones described in the article.
Terrifying. Who needs Krakens when you have that?!
- sandworm101 10y agoThat's the problem with statistically rare events. The old social paradigm of listing to a person with a lifetime of experience doesn't work. Ten lifetimes of experience isn't enough to have a good chance of witnessing the event. Only with modern electronic/video surveillance can we collect many thousands of lifetimes worth of experience. This has parallels in many other areas of human endeavor (medicine, extreme weather) where one must sometimes dismiss the old hats in favor of statistical analysis. Rogue waves aren't rare. just short-lived. They rise up and fall away very quickly, unlike normal waves which travel great distances. Tsunamis (aka port waves) are the opposite, traveling enormous distances. The "port" in port wave is the observation that tsunami bypass breakwaters to travel into ports. That's isn't just because of their size, but because they are something mechanically different than a normal wave. So too with rogues.