5 ms·

Reflections on the Shock of Brexit

19 points by wsc981 10y ago

jasonjei 10y ago
"Democracy is nothing more than mob rule, where 51% of the people may take away the rights of the other 49%." -- Thomas Jefferson "Alexander Hamilton believed in America but not in Americans when he said in a June 1788 speech defending the ratification of the U.S. Constitution: 'That a pure democracy if it were practicable would be the most perfect government. Experience has proved that no position is more false than this. The ancient democracies in which the people themselves deliberated never possessed one good feature of government. Their very character was tyranny; their figure, deformity.'"
- globuous 10y ago
  I think your first quote relates to tyranny of the majority [0]. Moreover, Alexis de Tocqueville brings up some interesting downsides of democracy in Democracy in America [1][2] [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tyranny_of_the_majority https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tyranny_of_the_majority [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_in_America https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_in_America [2] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rzr3AOtFA8o https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rzr3AOtFA8o
- bluejekyll 10y ago
  Sure, but does that really justify Rhode Island having the same number of Senators as California? I don't mind the temperament of law that the Senate provides, but I do think it would be more fair to have the larger states have a bigger voice in the Senate. Make the minimum 1 senator per state and the maximum 3. It will never happen of course because passing a constitutional amendment to do it would require the small states give up power, and why would they vote to do that?
- calibraxis 10y ago
  Yes, the US government's founders explicitly hated democracy, and were slavers. Only after president Andrew Jackson transformed the language in a PR stunt (maybe like calling yourself "anarchist" nowadays), did people imagine the US as a "democracy." (Which of course it isn't, just look at the guys who made the US government.)
  - jasonjei 10y ago
    I don't believe they hated democracy. I do think they had a dim view of people doing the right thing and mob rule. Hamilton wrote the above quote when he saw somebody being lynched in Albany.
- dang 10y ago
  Not Jefferson: https://www.monticello.org/site/jefferson/democracy-nothing-more-mob-rule https://www.monticello.org/site/jefferson/democracy-nothing-....
  - jasonjei 10y ago
    Acknowledged and agreed. Still applicable, even if it's not directly attributed to Jefferson, it does sound like it is written in his spirit with respect to tyranny of the majority.
lifeisstillgood 10y ago
There is a lot of soul-searching (and poll-searching) going on in the UK right now. And it's worth capturing some of the main points (some reflected in this article some not) the vote is best seen as a protest vote driven by three emotional issues 1. Fear of immigration 2. Fear of economic dislocation 3. Frustration at being out of political decision making Comments: All of the above are common threads in right wing and centre right politics across the western world. From Trump to Greece there is a strong right wing, older, lower educated rump of around 15% who are the economic losers in the past couple of decades amazing debt field growth that has lifted hundreds of millions out of absolute poverty (a Good Thing) But these three themes (the New Right) are not intellectually driven. They are weirdly fact free zones. For example, the strongest Leave votes in the UK come from area with minimal immigration. Just as no Mexican ever stole a Pennsylvania Coal Miners job, Immigrants in the UK are not taking jobs from workers in Hull - because there are no bloody jobs in Hull. 2. Economic dislocation is a problem - London is a black hole pulling jobs, finance, young people, from everywhere else in the country to itself. House prices reflect this - houses can be bought for a few tens of thousands just a few hours drive from central Londons million pound pads. Nothing about this makes sense - our economic future is a concern whatever we do with Europe, and it's just more dislocated in the UK. The problem is fixing it. Our economy is mostly services now - finance being a ridiculous 10-15 % of GDP. And we are not competing when selling real goods with Germany or others. Fixing that is a huge industrial policy issue and I don't see people taking it on. As for the last - well An amazing BBC clip (TBC) shows a voter who voted to leave, seeming genuinely shocked at the result saying "but I thought my vote did not matter". Turns out people feel disconnected from a political process that actually is working. When it is used. The problem is politicians and electoral rules clouding the direct levers. So rant slowly ending - we have had a massive protest vote "against the establishment" - which is driven by fears that turn out not to be based on facts, that will result in election of a person who is just as establishment (Boris Johnson was in the same posh school / university class as Cameron. It's not a diversity win here) My feeling is democracy has stopped being served by five yearly elections - that the real issues are much more local, and we need to find ways of forcing "evidence based politics" and more direct local action. Sadly that can be the same sound bite as "take back our sovereignty"
- 10y ago
blimey74 10y ago
The FTSE 250 closed 11.4 % down on Friday, its worst drop ever. I think it's a extremely premature to be saying everything is fine. No-one will know for several years whether it was a good decision or not.
- bluejekyll 10y ago
  Or maybe the article is trying to calm nerves by saying that the markets were already prepared for this, and so the stock hit is done and over. Hard to predict, but I like that the article is trying to calm people, rather than freaking people out.
  - rch 10y ago
    I heard Greenspan is predicting that this will be a catalyst for widespread turmoil, which sort suggests that it won't be.
lifeisstillgood 10y ago
Ok a small worry: 1. HSBC bank regularly has board meetings debating to move to Hong Kong. This will probably tip the balance. 2. Most banks want to cut staff. For example in 2013 BARCLAYS did 50bn a year on 130k headcount but google did same 50bn on 40k people. Most banks think they can lose 1-2/3rds of their staff, and this is a once in a lifetime opportunity Now, if my pessimism is right, suddenly London finance sector has 10s of thousands looking for work. The frothy housing market will tank with the dock lands hit hard but generally the unsustainable prices heading south. The knock on effects to the commuter belt will be equally hard. I can imagine being close to negative equity myself. It's hyper local, but it's a real fear.

19 points by wsc981 10y ago

"Democracy is nothing more than mob rule, where 51% of the people may take away the rights of the other 49%." -- Thomas Jefferson "Alexander Hamilton believed in America but not in Americans when he said in a June 1788 speech defending the ratification of the U.S. Constitution: 'That a pure democracy if it were practicable would be the most perfect government. Experience has proved that no position is more false than this. The ancient democracies in which the people themselves deliberated never possessed one good feature of government. Their very character was tyranny; their figure, deformity.'"

globuous 10y ago
I think your first quote relates to tyranny of the majority [0]. Moreover, Alexis de Tocqueville brings up some interesting downsides of democracy in Democracy in America [1][2] [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tyranny_of_the_majority https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tyranny_of_the_majority [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_in_America https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_in_America [2] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rzr3AOtFA8o https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rzr3AOtFA8o
bluejekyll 10y ago
Sure, but does that really justify Rhode Island having the same number of Senators as California? I don't mind the temperament of law that the Senate provides, but I do think it would be more fair to have the larger states have a bigger voice in the Senate. Make the minimum 1 senator per state and the maximum 3. It will never happen of course because passing a constitutional amendment to do it would require the small states give up power, and why would they vote to do that?
calibraxis 10y ago
Yes, the US government's founders explicitly hated democracy, and were slavers. Only after president Andrew Jackson transformed the language in a PR stunt (maybe like calling yourself "anarchist" nowadays), did people imagine the US as a "democracy." (Which of course it isn't, just look at the guys who made the US government.)
- jasonjei 10y ago
  I don't believe they hated democracy. I do think they had a dim view of people doing the right thing and mob rule. Hamilton wrote the above quote when he saw somebody being lynched in Albany.
dang 10y ago
Not Jefferson: https://www.monticello.org/site/jefferson/democracy-nothing-more-mob-rule https://www.monticello.org/site/jefferson/democracy-nothing-....
- jasonjei 10y ago
  Acknowledged and agreed. Still applicable, even if it's not directly attributed to Jefferson, it does sound like it is written in his spirit with respect to tyranny of the majority.

lifeisstillgood 10y ago

There is a lot of soul-searching (and poll-searching) going on in the UK right now. And it's worth capturing some of the main points (some reflected in this article some not) the vote is best seen as a protest vote driven by three emotional issues 1. Fear of immigration 2. Fear of economic dislocation 3. Frustration at being out of political decision making Comments: All of the above are common threads in right wing and centre right politics across the western world. From Trump to Greece there is a strong right wing, older, lower educated rump of around 15% who are the economic losers in the past couple of decades amazing debt field growth that has lifted hundreds of millions out of absolute poverty (a Good Thing) But these three themes (the New Right) are not intellectually driven. They are weirdly fact free zones. For example, the strongest Leave votes in the UK come from area with minimal immigration. Just as no Mexican ever stole a Pennsylvania Coal Miners job, Immigrants in the UK are not taking jobs from workers in Hull - because there are no bloody jobs in Hull. 2. Economic dislocation is a problem - London is a black hole pulling jobs, finance, young people, from everywhere else in the country to itself. House prices reflect this - houses can be bought for a few tens of thousands just a few hours drive from central Londons million pound pads. Nothing about this makes sense - our economic future is a concern whatever we do with Europe, and it's just more dislocated in the UK. The problem is fixing it. Our economy is mostly services now - finance being a ridiculous 10-15 % of GDP. And we are not competing when selling real goods with Germany or others. Fixing that is a huge industrial policy issue and I don't see people taking it on. As for the last - well An amazing BBC clip (TBC) shows a voter who voted to leave, seeming genuinely shocked at the result saying "but I thought my vote did not matter". Turns out people feel disconnected from a political process that actually is working. When it is used. The problem is politicians and electoral rules clouding the direct levers. So rant slowly ending - we have had a massive protest vote "against the establishment" - which is driven by fears that turn out not to be based on facts, that will result in election of a person who is just as establishment (Boris Johnson was in the same posh school / university class as Cameron. It's not a diversity win here) My feeling is democracy has stopped being served by five yearly elections - that the real issues are much more local, and we need to find ways of forcing "evidence based politics" and more direct local action. Sadly that can be the same sound bite as "take back our sovereignty"

10y ago

blimey74 10y ago

The FTSE 250 closed 11.4 % down on Friday, its worst drop ever. I think it's a extremely premature to be saying everything is fine. No-one will know for several years whether it was a good decision or not.

bluejekyll 10y ago
Or maybe the article is trying to calm nerves by saying that the markets were already prepared for this, and so the stock hit is done and over. Hard to predict, but I like that the article is trying to calm people, rather than freaking people out.
- rch 10y ago
  I heard Greenspan is predicting that this will be a catalyst for widespread turmoil, which sort suggests that it won't be.

lifeisstillgood 10y ago

Ok a small worry: 1. HSBC bank regularly has board meetings debating to move to Hong Kong. This will probably tip the balance. 2. Most banks want to cut staff. For example in 2013 BARCLAYS did 50bn a year on 130k headcount but google did same 50bn on 40k people. Most banks think they can lose 1-2/3rds of their staff, and this is a once in a lifetime opportunity Now, if my pessimism is right, suddenly London finance sector has 10s of thousands looking for work. The frothy housing market will tank with the dock lands hit hard but generally the unsustainable prices heading south. The knock on effects to the commuter belt will be equally hard. I can imagine being close to negative equity myself. It's hyper local, but it's a real fear.