4 ms·

My impression is that the UK will have to face some border problems before negotiating anything with the EU. Scotland may want to secede, Northern Ireland may

by gkya 10y ago

My impression is that the UK will have to face some border problems before negotiating anything with the EU. Scotland may want to secede, Northern Ireland may want to join R. o. Ireland, Gibraltar may want to move into Spain. And then the situation for many overseas territories of the UK will change, as they did gode some privileges from the EU.

secfirstmd 10y ago
Northern Ireland wont vote to reunify in my lifetime. First, they received about 11 billions pounds a year in transfers from the UK budget, which the Republic could never afford. Second, the Unionist population would never vote for it. Third, and this is the bit most people don't realise - polls in the Republic nearly always are a No to reunification - we esp when the financial and security costs are considered.
- NetStrikeForce 10y ago
  But now reunifications means EU, which means funding; while the status quo is... Uncertain. There's a reason Remain won in Northern Ireland.
DanBC 10y ago
> Gibraltar may want to move into Spain I can't see that happening. Gibraltar has had that option for years and they strongly reject it. It causes some international tension - Spain think they should have it. For one tiny example there are Wikipedia ArbCom sanctions around Gibraltar. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Arbitration/Requests/Case/Gibraltar https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Arbitration/Requests... And there are many archives on the talk page. (For a thing with a population of 30,000 people and an area of about 6.7 km^2 that's a lot of discussion and sanction)
- mchaver 10y ago
  I think the assumption is that once UK leaves the EU, Gibraltar will no longer be EU and Spain may try to exercise more muscle by making border crossing more painful and try to use that to pressure Gibraltar. I imagine they import a lot of food from Spain.
  - esbranson 10y ago
    In which case UK will retaliate. Spain would not survive a trade war with the UK.
    - mchaver 10y ago
      It could probably get really messy. Mariano Rajoy has already threatened the status of Brits in Spain in the case of leaving the EU. Amazing what a little patch of land can do. Anyway, I won't try to speculate more than that.
      - gkya 10y ago
        Well if the patch of land is the European side of the strait that's the only direct naval entrance to Mediterranean from the Atlantic.
    - NetStrikeForce 10y ago
      Exactly, trade war. Which comes to show how much of a clusterfuck is this Brexit. Who would've talked about trade war a week ago? What about Spain make any bold moves towards Gibraltar? People laughed when others mentioned potential confrontation and war. I don't think it would happen, but it has just become a bit less improbable. By the way, the UK can easily win a trade war against Spain; but Spain is part of a bigger trade organisation which is called European Union - does it ring a bell? The UK is dead in the water against any EU country, because they'll go all together, specially against the UK after Brexit because they're willing to make an example out of the UK. Either way, this is a fucking shame and I hope after a few years the UK population can take to court all the liars that tricked them into voting Leave. Voting Leave is a right, lying to people so they vote Leave or Remain should be a crime.
    - landryraccoon 10y ago
      Wouldn't it be a trade war with the EU since Spain is an EU member?
  - gkya 10y ago
    > Spain may try to exercise more muscle by making border crossing more painful She'll have to do it if UK will leave, no? Gibraltarians will need a Schengen visa.
throwaway987611 10y ago
I'm afraid to say, that your impressions are incorrect. Northern Ireland will not be joining Southern Ireland. They still see themselves as British first. Go over there, like I have and you'll see British Flags everywhere. Also, have you see the situation in Spain lately? Gibraltar is staying put. I do love hearing these fantasists hoping that the UK crumbles because it left the UK. You do realise there are whispers within the STRONGER countries in the EU who are now thinking of having their own referendums? The EU better be be careful as otherwise it's just France, Germany and a whole lot of smaller poorer southern countries and Germany goes bankrupt trying to bail them out! Lets see what happens when Greece finally explodes!
- airesQ 10y ago
  If the UK leaves, Scotland is probably out. The economy prospects are not looking good. Capital is flowing out of the UK, and plans for new investment's are being cancelled all over the place. Why invest in country that might be behind a trade barrier at any point? A country that is being consumed by a strong populist movement that is convinced that the EU is worse than the USSR? Sorry, we have had 70 years of peace and prosperity, and I don't believe that that would be possible if the EU was the monster that the Brexit camp portrays. The dislocations in the city have begun.[1] Keep mind that there are 49%+ Britons aghast at what is happening. They didn't vote for this, and don't deserve this. [1] - FT's pay-wall, just search for "Banks begin moving some operations out of Britain"
  - hackerboos 10y ago
    No still leads the polls in post-Brexit Scotland [1]. The economic arguments are not there since the collapse in the oil price. [1] - http://whatscotlandthinks.org/questions/if-a-majority-of-people-in-the-uk-voted-for-the-uk-to-leave-the-eu-how-would-yo#line http://whatscotlandthinks.org/questions/if-a-majority-of-peo...
    - protomyth 10y ago
      and oil dropped in price on the Brexit vote giving some of my fellow North Dakotans a bit of a poor view on the vote as oil was finally back to the "good" range. [edit: too soon]
protomyth 10y ago
> Gibraltar may want to move into Spain Doesn't Spain already have a problem with part of it (Catalans) trying to leave? I also seem to remember some thoughts of kicking them out due to being in the same boat as Greece. I haven't really kept up on this news, just curious.
- gkya 10y ago
  The catalan secession is a nationalistic question, whereas the case with Gibraltar would be an economic-social one.

by gkya 10y ago

secfirstmd 10y ago

Northern Ireland wont vote to reunify in my lifetime. First, they received about 11 billions pounds a year in transfers from the UK budget, which the Republic could never afford. Second, the Unionist population would never vote for it. Third, and this is the bit most people don't realise - polls in the Republic nearly always are a No to reunification - we esp when the financial and security costs are considered.

NetStrikeForce 10y ago
But now reunifications means EU, which means funding; while the status quo is... Uncertain. There's a reason Remain won in Northern Ireland.

DanBC 10y ago

> Gibraltar may want to move into Spain I can't see that happening. Gibraltar has had that option for years and they strongly reject it. It causes some international tension - Spain think they should have it. For one tiny example there are Wikipedia ArbCom sanctions around Gibraltar. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Arbitration/Requests/Case/Gibraltar https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Arbitration/Requests... And there are many archives on the talk page. (For a thing with a population of 30,000 people and an area of about 6.7 km^2 that's a lot of discussion and sanction)

mchaver 10y ago
I think the assumption is that once UK leaves the EU, Gibraltar will no longer be EU and Spain may try to exercise more muscle by making border crossing more painful and try to use that to pressure Gibraltar. I imagine they import a lot of food from Spain.
- esbranson 10y ago
  In which case UK will retaliate. Spain would not survive a trade war with the UK.
  - mchaver 10y ago
    It could probably get really messy. Mariano Rajoy has already threatened the status of Brits in Spain in the case of leaving the EU. Amazing what a little patch of land can do. Anyway, I won't try to speculate more than that.
    - gkya 10y ago
      Well if the patch of land is the European side of the strait that's the only direct naval entrance to Mediterranean from the Atlantic.
  - NetStrikeForce 10y ago
    Exactly, trade war. Which comes to show how much of a clusterfuck is this Brexit. Who would've talked about trade war a week ago? What about Spain make any bold moves towards Gibraltar? People laughed when others mentioned potential confrontation and war. I don't think it would happen, but it has just become a bit less improbable. By the way, the UK can easily win a trade war against Spain; but Spain is part of a bigger trade organisation which is called European Union - does it ring a bell? The UK is dead in the water against any EU country, because they'll go all together, specially against the UK after Brexit because they're willing to make an example out of the UK. Either way, this is a fucking shame and I hope after a few years the UK population can take to court all the liars that tricked them into voting Leave. Voting Leave is a right, lying to people so they vote Leave or Remain should be a crime.
  - landryraccoon 10y ago
    Wouldn't it be a trade war with the EU since Spain is an EU member?
- gkya 10y ago
  > Spain may try to exercise more muscle by making border crossing more painful She'll have to do it if UK will leave, no? Gibraltarians will need a Schengen visa.

throwaway987611 10y ago

I'm afraid to say, that your impressions are incorrect. Northern Ireland will not be joining Southern Ireland. They still see themselves as British first. Go over there, like I have and you'll see British Flags everywhere. Also, have you see the situation in Spain lately? Gibraltar is staying put. I do love hearing these fantasists hoping that the UK crumbles because it left the UK. You do realise there are whispers within the STRONGER countries in the EU who are now thinking of having their own referendums? The EU better be be careful as otherwise it's just France, Germany and a whole lot of smaller poorer southern countries and Germany goes bankrupt trying to bail them out! Lets see what happens when Greece finally explodes!

airesQ 10y ago
If the UK leaves, Scotland is probably out. The economy prospects are not looking good. Capital is flowing out of the UK, and plans for new investment's are being cancelled all over the place. Why invest in country that might be behind a trade barrier at any point? A country that is being consumed by a strong populist movement that is convinced that the EU is worse than the USSR? Sorry, we have had 70 years of peace and prosperity, and I don't believe that that would be possible if the EU was the monster that the Brexit camp portrays. The dislocations in the city have begun.[1] Keep mind that there are 49%+ Britons aghast at what is happening. They didn't vote for this, and don't deserve this. [1] - FT's pay-wall, just search for "Banks begin moving some operations out of Britain"
- hackerboos 10y ago
  No still leads the polls in post-Brexit Scotland [1]. The economic arguments are not there since the collapse in the oil price. [1] - http://whatscotlandthinks.org/questions/if-a-majority-of-people-in-the-uk-voted-for-the-uk-to-leave-the-eu-how-would-yo#line http://whatscotlandthinks.org/questions/if-a-majority-of-peo...
  - protomyth 10y ago
    and oil dropped in price on the Brexit vote giving some of my fellow North Dakotans a bit of a poor view on the vote as oil was finally back to the "good" range. [edit: too soon]

protomyth 10y ago

> Gibraltar may want to move into Spain Doesn't Spain already have a problem with part of it (Catalans) trying to leave? I also seem to remember some thoughts of kicking them out due to being in the same boat as Greece. I haven't really kept up on this news, just curious.

gkya 10y ago
The catalan secession is a nationalistic question, whereas the case with Gibraltar would be an economic-social one.