7 ms·

Let's just say that Norway did not leave the EU slamming the door after decades of being the difficult child. I'm not sure this kind of agreement will be extend

Let's just say that Norway did not leave the EU slamming the door after decades of being the difficult child. I'm not sure this kind of agreement will be extended to the UK.

gkya 10y ago
My impression is that the UK will have to face some border problems before negotiating anything with the EU. Scotland may want to secede, Northern Ireland may want to join R. o. Ireland, Gibraltar may want to move into Spain. And then the situation for many overseas territories of the UK will change, as they did gode some privileges from the EU.
- secfirstmd 10y ago
  Northern Ireland wont vote to reunify in my lifetime. First, they received about 11 billions pounds a year in transfers from the UK budget, which the Republic could never afford. Second, the Unionist population would never vote for it. Third, and this is the bit most people don't realise - polls in the Republic nearly always are a No to reunification - we esp when the financial and security costs are considered.
  - NetStrikeForce 10y ago
    But now reunifications means EU, which means funding; while the status quo is... Uncertain. There's a reason Remain won in Northern Ireland.
- DanBC 10y ago
  > Gibraltar may want to move into Spain I can't see that happening. Gibraltar has had that option for years and they strongly reject it. It causes some international tension - Spain think they should have it. For one tiny example there are Wikipedia ArbCom sanctions around Gibraltar. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Arbitration/Requests/Case/Gibraltar https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Arbitration/Requests... And there are many archives on the talk page. (For a thing with a population of 30,000 people and an area of about 6.7 km^2 that's a lot of discussion and sanction)
  - mchaver 10y ago
    I think the assumption is that once UK leaves the EU, Gibraltar will no longer be EU and Spain may try to exercise more muscle by making border crossing more painful and try to use that to pressure Gibraltar. I imagine they import a lot of food from Spain.
    - esbranson 10y ago
      In which case UK will retaliate. Spain would not survive a trade war with the UK.
      - mchaver 10y ago
        It could probably get really messy. Mariano Rajoy has already threatened the status of Brits in Spain in the case of leaving the EU. Amazing what a little patch of land can do. Anyway, I won't try to speculate more than that.
        gkya 10y ago
        Well if the patch of land is the European side of the strait that's the only direct naval entrance to Mediterranean from the Atlantic.
      - NetStrikeForce 10y ago
        Exactly, trade war. Which comes to show how much of a clusterfuck is this Brexit. Who would've talked about trade war a week ago? What about Spain make any bold moves towards Gibraltar? People laughed when others mentioned potential confrontation and war. I don't think it would happen, but it has just become a bit less improbable. By the way, the UK can easily win a trade war against Spain; but Spain is part of a bigger trade organisation which is called European Union - does it ring a bell? The UK is dead in the water against any EU country, because they'll go all together, specially against the UK after Brexit because they're willing to make an example out of the UK. Either way, this is a fucking shame and I hope after a few years the UK population can take to court all the liars that tricked them into voting Leave. Voting Leave is a right, lying to people so they vote Leave or Remain should be a crime.
- throwaway987611 10y ago
  I'm afraid to say, that your impressions are incorrect. Northern Ireland will not be joining Southern Ireland. They still see themselves as British first. Go over there, like I have and you'll see British Flags everywhere. Also, have you see the situation in Spain lately? Gibraltar is staying put. I do love hearing these fantasists hoping that the UK crumbles because it left the UK. You do realise there are whispers within the STRONGER countries in the EU who are now thinking of having their own referendums? The EU better be be careful as otherwise it's just France, Germany and a whole lot of smaller poorer southern countries and Germany goes bankrupt trying to bail them out! Lets see what happens when Greece finally explodes!
  - airesQ 10y ago
    If the UK leaves, Scotland is probably out. The economy prospects are not looking good. Capital is flowing out of the UK, and plans for new investment's are being cancelled all over the place. Why invest in country that might be behind a trade barrier at any point? A country that is being consumed by a strong populist movement that is convinced that the EU is worse than the USSR? Sorry, we have had 70 years of peace and prosperity, and I don't believe that that would be possible if the EU was the monster that the Brexit camp portrays. The dislocations in the city have begun.[1] Keep mind that there are 49%+ Britons aghast at what is happening. They didn't vote for this, and don't deserve this. [1] - FT's pay-wall, just search for "Banks begin moving some operations out of Britain"
    - hackerboos 10y ago
      No still leads the polls in post-Brexit Scotland [1]. The economic arguments are not there since the collapse in the oil price. [1] - http://whatscotlandthinks.org/questions/if-a-majority-of-people-in-the-uk-voted-for-the-uk-to-leave-the-eu-how-would-yo#line http://whatscotlandthinks.org/questions/if-a-majority-of-peo...
      - protomyth 10y ago
        and oil dropped in price on the Brexit vote giving some of my fellow North Dakotans a bit of a poor view on the vote as oil was finally back to the "good" range. [edit: too soon]
- protomyth 10y ago
  > Gibraltar may want to move into Spain Doesn't Spain already have a problem with part of it (Catalans) trying to leave? I also seem to remember some thoughts of kicking them out due to being in the same boat as Greece. I haven't really kept up on this news, just curious.
  - gkya 10y ago
    The catalan secession is a nationalistic question, whereas the case with Gibraltar would be an economic-social one.
_9MOTHER9HORSE 10y ago
On the other hand, the EU does not need free trade with Norway as much as it does with the UK.
- nraynaud 10y ago
  The EU is not based on pure direct economical interest, it's also based on a dream. That dream really helped Germany during the reunification, helped some small countries in the east, and that dream did not really help Greece. But it's more than a pure cold economic union.
  - _9MOTHER9HORSE 10y ago
    Granted, but money talks. EU industry is not going to stand for punishment tariffs against the UK.
    - the8472 10y ago
      UK industry needs the EU market far more than the EU industry needs the UK market, simply due to the size disparity. Not to mention that while indisputably the UK currently is a net payer into EU funds, if they don't pay money anymore they will get less benefits out of the deal too. It would be delusional to assume that they will keep all the benefits while ridding themselves of most of the obligations. That's just not going to happen, something will have to give. Another point is that the EU has all the incentives to not give the UK a sweet deal, because that would otherwise encourage other countries to exit as well.
      - _9MOTHER9HORSE 10y ago
        The UK will obviously lose the "benefits" of EU membership, but it was a net contributor in financial terms. All else being equal, the UK could replace all EU funds spent in the UK, and have cash to spare. In trade terms, the EU faces a prisoner's dilemma. It may be beneficial for them as a whole to play hardball with the UK, but major exporters to the UK (e.g. German car manufacturers) won't accept it. There'll be some diplomatic bravado, some tense negotiations, and the UK will be granted access to the common market.
deleted 10y ago
[deleted]
the8472 10y ago
The UK could probably get the norway deal. But that would leave a lot of those things in place that Leave was against while being a less beneficial deal than the UK currently has. So to fulfill their promises Leave would have to negotiate something with fewer obligations than norway has, which most likely means also fewer benefits.
- forthefuture 10y ago
  I don't think Leave is particularly interested in fulfilling their promises.
- GreaterFool 10y ago
  AFAIK any deal has to be negotiated and ratified by all member countries. What are the chances that all members will be inclined to offer UK a better deal than it had when it was a part of the union?
  - TazeTSchnitzel 10y ago
    Perhaps the UK could make certain concessions to retain Single Market access.

Let's just say that Norway did not leave the EU slamming the door after decades of being the difficult child. I'm not sure this kind of agreement will be extended to the UK.

gkya 10y ago

My impression is that the UK will have to face some border problems before negotiating anything with the EU. Scotland may want to secede, Northern Ireland may want to join R. o. Ireland, Gibraltar may want to move into Spain. And then the situation for many overseas territories of the UK will change, as they did gode some privileges from the EU.

secfirstmd 10y ago
Northern Ireland wont vote to reunify in my lifetime. First, they received about 11 billions pounds a year in transfers from the UK budget, which the Republic could never afford. Second, the Unionist population would never vote for it. Third, and this is the bit most people don't realise - polls in the Republic nearly always are a No to reunification - we esp when the financial and security costs are considered.
- NetStrikeForce 10y ago
  But now reunifications means EU, which means funding; while the status quo is... Uncertain. There's a reason Remain won in Northern Ireland.
DanBC 10y ago
> Gibraltar may want to move into Spain I can't see that happening. Gibraltar has had that option for years and they strongly reject it. It causes some international tension - Spain think they should have it. For one tiny example there are Wikipedia ArbCom sanctions around Gibraltar. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Arbitration/Requests/Case/Gibraltar https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Arbitration/Requests... And there are many archives on the talk page. (For a thing with a population of 30,000 people and an area of about 6.7 km^2 that's a lot of discussion and sanction)
- mchaver 10y ago
  I think the assumption is that once UK leaves the EU, Gibraltar will no longer be EU and Spain may try to exercise more muscle by making border crossing more painful and try to use that to pressure Gibraltar. I imagine they import a lot of food from Spain.
  - esbranson 10y ago
    In which case UK will retaliate. Spain would not survive a trade war with the UK.
    - mchaver 10y ago
      It could probably get really messy. Mariano Rajoy has already threatened the status of Brits in Spain in the case of leaving the EU. Amazing what a little patch of land can do. Anyway, I won't try to speculate more than that.
      - gkya 10y ago
        Well if the patch of land is the European side of the strait that's the only direct naval entrance to Mediterranean from the Atlantic.
    - NetStrikeForce 10y ago
      Exactly, trade war. Which comes to show how much of a clusterfuck is this Brexit. Who would've talked about trade war a week ago? What about Spain make any bold moves towards Gibraltar? People laughed when others mentioned potential confrontation and war. I don't think it would happen, but it has just become a bit less improbable. By the way, the UK can easily win a trade war against Spain; but Spain is part of a bigger trade organisation which is called European Union - does it ring a bell? The UK is dead in the water against any EU country, because they'll go all together, specially against the UK after Brexit because they're willing to make an example out of the UK. Either way, this is a fucking shame and I hope after a few years the UK population can take to court all the liars that tricked them into voting Leave. Voting Leave is a right, lying to people so they vote Leave or Remain should be a crime.
throwaway987611 10y ago
I'm afraid to say, that your impressions are incorrect. Northern Ireland will not be joining Southern Ireland. They still see themselves as British first. Go over there, like I have and you'll see British Flags everywhere. Also, have you see the situation in Spain lately? Gibraltar is staying put. I do love hearing these fantasists hoping that the UK crumbles because it left the UK. You do realise there are whispers within the STRONGER countries in the EU who are now thinking of having their own referendums? The EU better be be careful as otherwise it's just France, Germany and a whole lot of smaller poorer southern countries and Germany goes bankrupt trying to bail them out! Lets see what happens when Greece finally explodes!
- airesQ 10y ago
  If the UK leaves, Scotland is probably out. The economy prospects are not looking good. Capital is flowing out of the UK, and plans for new investment's are being cancelled all over the place. Why invest in country that might be behind a trade barrier at any point? A country that is being consumed by a strong populist movement that is convinced that the EU is worse than the USSR? Sorry, we have had 70 years of peace and prosperity, and I don't believe that that would be possible if the EU was the monster that the Brexit camp portrays. The dislocations in the city have begun.[1] Keep mind that there are 49%+ Britons aghast at what is happening. They didn't vote for this, and don't deserve this. [1] - FT's pay-wall, just search for "Banks begin moving some operations out of Britain"
  - hackerboos 10y ago
    No still leads the polls in post-Brexit Scotland [1]. The economic arguments are not there since the collapse in the oil price. [1] - http://whatscotlandthinks.org/questions/if-a-majority-of-people-in-the-uk-voted-for-the-uk-to-leave-the-eu-how-would-yo#line http://whatscotlandthinks.org/questions/if-a-majority-of-peo...
    - protomyth 10y ago
      and oil dropped in price on the Brexit vote giving some of my fellow North Dakotans a bit of a poor view on the vote as oil was finally back to the "good" range. [edit: too soon]
protomyth 10y ago
> Gibraltar may want to move into Spain Doesn't Spain already have a problem with part of it (Catalans) trying to leave? I also seem to remember some thoughts of kicking them out due to being in the same boat as Greece. I haven't really kept up on this news, just curious.
- gkya 10y ago
  The catalan secession is a nationalistic question, whereas the case with Gibraltar would be an economic-social one.

_9MOTHER9HORSE 10y ago

On the other hand, the EU does not need free trade with Norway as much as it does with the UK.

nraynaud 10y ago
The EU is not based on pure direct economical interest, it's also based on a dream. That dream really helped Germany during the reunification, helped some small countries in the east, and that dream did not really help Greece. But it's more than a pure cold economic union.
- _9MOTHER9HORSE 10y ago
  Granted, but money talks. EU industry is not going to stand for punishment tariffs against the UK.
  - the8472 10y ago
    UK industry needs the EU market far more than the EU industry needs the UK market, simply due to the size disparity. Not to mention that while indisputably the UK currently is a net payer into EU funds, if they don't pay money anymore they will get less benefits out of the deal too. It would be delusional to assume that they will keep all the benefits while ridding themselves of most of the obligations. That's just not going to happen, something will have to give. Another point is that the EU has all the incentives to not give the UK a sweet deal, because that would otherwise encourage other countries to exit as well.
    - _9MOTHER9HORSE 10y ago
      The UK will obviously lose the "benefits" of EU membership, but it was a net contributor in financial terms. All else being equal, the UK could replace all EU funds spent in the UK, and have cash to spare. In trade terms, the EU faces a prisoner's dilemma. It may be beneficial for them as a whole to play hardball with the UK, but major exporters to the UK (e.g. German car manufacturers) won't accept it. There'll be some diplomatic bravado, some tense negotiations, and the UK will be granted access to the common market.

deleted 10y ago

[deleted]

the8472 10y ago

The UK could probably get the norway deal. But that would leave a lot of those things in place that Leave was against while being a less beneficial deal than the UK currently has. So to fulfill their promises Leave would have to negotiate something with fewer obligations than norway has, which most likely means also fewer benefits.

forthefuture 10y ago
I don't think Leave is particularly interested in fulfilling their promises.
GreaterFool 10y ago
AFAIK any deal has to be negotiated and ratified by all member countries. What are the chances that all members will be inclined to offer UK a better deal than it had when it was a part of the union?
- TazeTSchnitzel 10y ago
  Perhaps the UK could make certain concessions to retain Single Market access.