4 ms·

That's the last thing they will do because then it would encourage every EU country to hold a referendum and do the same thing, which would kill the EU easily.

• TheOtherHobbes 10y ago
  It's not obvious at this point that the EU will still be around a couple of years from now. I think if one more country votes to leave between now and then a renegotiation and some core constitutional changes become more likely. The basic problem is that the Leave side lied about the benefits of leaving, but they were absolutely correct that the core of the EU has become a neoliberal financial dictatorship with rather thin democratic wrapping. If bigger cracks start appearing in the structure the leadership is going to have a choice between accepting more real democracy, or having the whole thing come crashing down. Currently there are no bigger cracks visible, but the economic foundations in most of the EU are very shaky - so who knows where we'll be a couple of years from now?
  • tluyben2 10y ago
    Couple of years is a bit over the top. It will take a lot longer to really collapse. But sure it can happen; probably a lot depends on how the EU handles this blow.
  • Atropos 10y ago
    What about the UK? Their prime minister has resigned, the lead of the opposition party is battling a motion of no confidence, the British pound crashed 10% against the US-Dollar and Scotland wants to stay in the European Union...
    • mirekrusin 10y ago
      it's more like ~6.8% than 10% but this will stabilise after initial hiccup of course.
  • Oletros 10y ago
    > It's not obvious at this point that the EU will still be around a couple of years from now Why?
    • tim333 10y ago
      Other countries look at the UK precedent, Greece leaves, things disintegrate.
      • Asooka 10y ago
        Greece might leave, but I don't know of any other country that would want to go back to the days of restricted travel and trade.
      • dragonwriter 10y ago
        This seems to presume positive results in Britain which make it attractive to emulate. That seems, at best, a premature assumption at this point.
        • ap3 10y ago
          How long has the UK been around vs how long the EU has existed?
          • dragonwriter 10y ago
            How is that even relevant to anything? The relative costs and benefits to the UK (or any nation that might think to follow it out of the EU) of staying in vs. leaving the EU is not measured by how long the UK had been around vs. how long the EU has been around.
      • Oletros 10y ago
        > Other countries look at the UK precedent, If it is positive, thing that it is highly dubious
  • rwmj 10y ago
    > It's not obvious at this point that the EU will still be around a couple of years from now. Two years! Pretty sure it will be around. Now if you'd said, say, 20 years then you might have a point. Personally I very much hope the EU is around in 20 years, but massively reformed. I think it needs far more transparency and clarity (no more "<insert random city here> Agreement"). Also every policy which doesn't have a good reason to be decided centrally should be delegated down to local level, even to sub-national / city / county level. And you're right about the shaky financial foundations. I think the Eurozone, assuming it doesn't collapse, should be a separate organization entirely.
• raverbashing 10y ago
  > EU if we join the Euro and Schengen They aren't going to join neither Also this is certain to make people even more pissed Schengen does not make sense for the UK. (They have their own deal with Ireland because of Northern Ireland called the Common Travel Area which might go down the drain as well)
• dingaling 10y ago
  > That's the last thing they will do because then it would encourage every EU country to hold a referendum and do the same thing, which would kill the EU easily. If that would kill the EU then the EU probably deserves to die. Otherwise it suggests that it only persists through the inability of its consituent populations to challenge the status quo.