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This does not imply polls are more or less accurate than prediction markets. The way to measure that is to look at 100 cases where prediction markets predict 7
by yummyfajitas 10y ago
This does not imply polls are more or less accurate than prediction markets.
The way to measure that is to look at 100 cases where prediction markets predict 75% odds. If approximately 75 of them result in a winner, prediction markets are accurate.
Looking at a single data point and declaring a probabilistic predictor to be inaccurate is not even wrong.
- vegabook 10y agobut who is looking only at a single data point? We have more information than that, namely, the strongly consistent incorrect direction of the prediction markets, as the uncertainly decreased (40% to 25% in the last week, and 25% to 11% in the last day). It is clear that there was a feedback loop into the predictors. These markets appeared structurally biased towards the larger odds -> this is where the profit motive is possibly distorting.