3 ms·
Homicide is a small percentage of violent crimes (close to 0.1%), so it isn't necessarily what skews the prison population. Thankfully, by your logic, violent c
by Joof 10y ago
Homicide is a small percentage of violent crimes (close to 0.1%), so it isn't necessarily what skews the prison population. Thankfully, by your logic, violent crime in general would do that, but it becomes much less clear using that data.
The gap in violent crime is much smaller than 6 times according to this DOJ report:
http://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/cv14.pdf http://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/cv14.pdf
summed up in:
http://www.amren.com/news/2015/07/new-doj-statistics-on-race-and-violent-crime/ http://www.amren.com/news/2015/07/new-doj-statistics-on-race...
Comparing the violent crime rates to the % population in the US (63.7% white pop; 42.9% offenders | 12.6% black pop; 22.4% offenders), it's roughly 2.8 times as high for black as whites per person. Bad, but not quite 6 times as high by any measure.
Going back to the original number of total offenders, it would make sense (assuming violent crime is represented disproportionately), that roughly 42% of those imprisoned are white and 22.4% are black; instead blacks account for a whopping 37% of the prison population and whites only 22%.
It would seem something more is going on here.
Honestly I'm not surprised blacks dislike officers either; unarmed blacks are 3.49 time more likely to be shot by an officer according to a bayesian analysis[1]. They also found no relationship between this statistic and crime rate in the area.
[1] http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0141854 http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal....
- danielvf 10y agoBig props to you for digging into the raw stats. To get estimates for prision population percentages you'll need to adjust the convictions for each category by the average number of years served for that crime category. As you said, homicides make up a tiny fraction of crimes and yet a double digit percentage of state prisoners are serving time for homicide.
- Joof 10y agoFair enough; homicides are indeed ~12% of the state prison population. I can't do it now, but I'm still very curious. There are dozens of other factors that could go into it as well; if one race has a higher average sentencing time or serving time; that would bring up more questions.
- danielvf 10y agoYes, different sentencing would make an effect, though obviously you would need to control somehow for prior convictions and the probability of re-offending, which sounds difficult. You'd also need to compare inside a state, since states can have quite different sentencing laws. For example, in California the sexual assault of an unconscious person has either a one year or two year max sentence. Whereas in South Carolina it has ten year max sentence.