3 ms·
>And 25% was in any case a very poor prediction considering these markets are supposed to be more accurate than polls If the markets predicted 75% A vs 25% B a
by smeyer 10y ago
>And 25% was in any case a very poor prediction considering these markets are supposed to be more accurate than polls
If the markets predicted 75% A vs 25% B and A always turned up, that would make them a poor prediction. Predicting 25% B may mean they're not making much of a prediction (since they're not so far off from 50/50), but it doesn't mean that B being the outcome is indicative of a the prediction being deeply wrong.
- vegabook 10y agoyes I know how sampling works. However as the uncertainty decreased, the prediction markets went in the wrong direction, rapidly on the last day and signficantly in the last week. This strongly suggests that there is an element of "herding" going on by what are supposed to be rational, atomic, individual, actors (the first two of those three assumptions were violated by profit incenctive, and a non-secret ballot, respectively, it seems). Hence I stand by my view that the prediction markets turned out to be terribly poor. You will admit that as final polls all hovered around 50%, if accurate (and they seemingly were), prediction markets should have been wildly swinging between, say 25/75 and 75/25. They were not. They were trending consistenly lower for brexit.