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It is clear that immigration was the emotional issue driving Brexit. So it would be foolish to ignore that angle. (There were other angles, but I really doubt t
by soundwave106 10y ago
It is clear that immigration was the emotional issue driving Brexit. So it would be foolish to ignore that angle. (There were other angles, but I really doubt the resolution would have passed if it was just "EU regulations".)
I think it is also clear that it would be foolish to just focus on the "you're a racist!" angle.
Today's globalization and technology -- while bringing many benefits to the world -- also are leaving a lot of people behind, as seen by the growing inequality in much of the world today.
So you look at the Brexit demographics. The single biggest predictor for the Brexit vote appears to be average educational attainment -- the higher educated the area, the more likely the Remain vote. Social class was also a strong predictor -- lower middle class and above leaned Remain, working class and below leaned Leave. (http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2016/jun/24/the-areas-and-demographics-where-the-brexit-vote-was-won http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2016/jun/24/the-are...)
The core issue to me, is that no one has really come up with a great solution for people "left behind" in today's economy (eg, those with low education or low skills). For them, things really are worse than it used to be. I know in the US, for instance, that real hourly wages for the lower class actually have fallen 5% over the last 25 years (http://www.epi.org/publication/charting-wage-stagnation/ http://www.epi.org/publication/charting-wage-stagnation/). I cannot find similar charts at the moment for the UK, but I think I remember reading that it's similar (maybe even worse).
I believe a lot of these people have latched onto immigrants as the problem, as a proxy for issues brought on by other factors. Perhaps because immigrant culture is a very visible sign of global change, and they know things are crappier than they used to be... and, well, they blame what is obviously new and strange to them. This is a phenomenon found in many places, from Donald Trump to the Le Pens.
It's wrongheaded -- I believe this vote will economically hurt the lower classes more than the middle to upper class. The world is not going to un-globalize and technology is not going to un-invent itself. But without solutions to address inequality and wage stagnation, I'd expect more votes in the same direction.