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Crowds are wise only if their errors are at least pseudo-stochastic; if they are skewed in some direction by a pervasive bias (high/low, left/right, etc.), thei
by nickff 10y ago
Crowds are wise only if their errors are at least pseudo-stochastic; if they are skewed in some direction by a pervasive bias (high/low, left/right, etc.), their predictions or choices will be driven by that bias.
- Hermel 10y agoEven if biased, crowds can be the best option if all others are more biased.
- geoelectric 10y agoDepends on whether you agree with their bias, really.
- sverige 10y agoNot if it's a binary decision, as in the article.
- geoelectric 10y agoThis is one reason you need to be careful about disqualifying people from the decision if you're relying on the large-crowd effect--for example, an educational requirement to vote or only letting certain engineers participate in planning poker type estimations. Unless you successfully boil it down to a small-crowd expert decision you'll spoil the process with skew. The uninformed people have a place in a larger-crowd process.