6 ms·

On the contrary, historical perspective is essential in understanding the issues that the EU is going through currently. If the German leadership took a good lo

by banach 10y ago

On the contrary, historical perspective is essential in understanding the issues that the EU is going through currently. If the German leadership took a good look in the mirror, it would see that it is subjecting Greece to a replica of the Treaty of Versaille and, as a result, should expect similar consequences. The PR outfall of that debacle is probably what pushed the Brits to vote for exit.

dnautics 10y ago
that's nonsense. 1) the German debt post WWI was imposed upon it. The Greek debt was taken on by the country itself. 2) News flash: Austerity only hurts the poor when the political elite choose to cut social programs instead of giving their cronies a haircut. But you know, it's easier to hold the poor hostage. 3) A huge part of the reason why greece can't pay its obligations is because their 1% thinks paying taxes is a joke. 4) Germany's "clever" out of the Treaty of Versailles was to devalue the currency and pay back in cheaper nominal payments. Greece can't do that because while the local central banks can do some easing shenanigans, they're still part of the eurozone and so the effects will be diluted because you can be damned sure that Germany and France won't play Greece's game in that matter. So, in short: Nothing at all like the interbellum. >The PR outfall of that debacle is probably what pushed the Brits to vote for exit. But yes, the Brits are very wise to exit, because (especially if they enter the eurozone, which is clearly the next step in ever closer union) they are definitely the "next germany". And that might even happen without joining the eurozone, by fiat.
- Symmetry 10y ago
  Greece in particular is sort of remarkable in how much of government spending goes to the top 20% and how little to the bottom 20%. See page 5 of this report. http://www.oecd.org/els/soc/OECD2014-Social-Expenditure-Update-Nov2014-8pages.pdf http://www.oecd.org/els/soc/OECD2014-Social-Expenditure-Upda...
nickik 10y ago
Their is a lot wrong with what you say. Clearly you are not up with current historical studies on the 'Treaty of Versaille'. The treaty was actually not particularly hard or in any way impossible to mean by Germany. If Germany had better leadership they could easily have moved passed it and be the most wealthy nation again. What they are doing to Greece is actually much worse then Versaille. It has to do with the issue that Greece should have defaulted years (I was arguing this even in 2008) and change their government. Because of EU (EMU) logic this can not happen. So Greece is forced to change its government in the context of huge debt and even worse a flat demand curve (look at EU NGDP and Greece NGDP). Greece is about the only country that actually did significant Austerity but its not working. The EU should have let them default or take over their debt completely. You are probably right that PR is the main issue. It was with 'Versaille' as well. German government PR is the main reason why you use 'Versaille' as an example of evil practice. Maybe the most successful example of PR in the last 100 years.
- cygx 10y ago
  If Germany had better leadership they could easily have moved passed it and be the most wealthy nation again. Germany actually was on the road to economic recovery when the Great Depression hit.
  - nickik 10y ago
    That is a vastly oversimplified story. Germany actually did really good after WW1 until the Government escalated the inflation in a deliberate attempted to get a better deal. When they got that deal they again grew really well under the economic leadership of some smart economists. Then the Great Depression hit and Germany, wanting to stay on gold, got hit really hard. By 1934-1935 they overcame the shock and Hitler earns the credit. Fantastic book on this stuff: - The Deluge: The Great War, America and the Remaking of the Global Order, 1916-1931
- deleted 10y ago
  [deleted]
- Retric 10y ago
  Greece did not do meaningful Austerity, they let their debt continue to snowball and continued to spend more than they where taxing. http://www.statista.com/statistics/275335/government-revenue-and-spending-in-greece/ http://www.statista.com/statistics/275335/government-revenue...
fchopin 10y ago
Greece is a great country, but seems to be at this point a welfare state. Whether there had been Brexit or not, it had fallen on hard times. From what I understand, many of its people supported Brexit, because they feel that they have been let down by the EU, although they are not in a good position to leave the EU themselves. I wish the best for Greece; I think they will be able to overcome their current situation and be better for it in the end. It used to be a place that people longed to vacation in and saw as a gem of Europe. It is still the same country, regardless of their financial situation. Put up tens of thousands of travel posters that say, "Greece, Beauty on a Budget" around Europe, and you could solve that problem in a decade or less, perhaps.
- mastazi 10y ago
  Your first sentence seems to imply that "great countries" don't or should not provide welfare/public aid... Care to elaborate?
  - slowernet 10y ago
    I think the poster was referring to the Greek economy's need for bailout/recapitalization from the EU, not provision of aid to their citizens.
    - mastazi 10y ago
      Yes, I just re-read the parent in light of your comment, it makes sense now, thank you.
- banach 10y ago
  I am not sure that I understand your use of the term "welfare state". My dictionary says: > a system whereby the government undertakes to protect the health and well-being of its citizens, especially those in financial or social need, by means of grants, pensions, and other benefits. The above is standard in all of the northern-European countries typically lauded for their economic success. Clearly, this was not what caused the collapse of the Greek economy. Of course, there are many alternative theories, but the most convincing one I am aware of is that it was the result of subprime lending by north-European (predominantly German) banks.
return0 10y ago
The greeks can choose to leave the eurozone (I am an greek an in favor of that myself). This shouldnt affect our position in the EU, it benefits us greatly and has guaranteed a relative stability for a long time. The UK is our #1 source of tourism (that contributes 2.7% of our GDP) - it's sad that brexit is making it harder for them to visit.
- ethbro 10y ago
  So, question from afar: with a UK no longer in the EU, what's to stop Greece (or anywhere else) from renegotiating EU-like deals with them? I realize it's a bit more work, but is there any EU authority that could block member states from doing this?
  - deleted 10y ago
    [deleted]
  - emn13 10y ago
    I'm by no means an expert, but from my limited understanding there isn't so much an EU "authority" that prevents this, but rather a large group of rules that each country agreed to. In particular, the agreement that protects greece from protectionism is really just an agreement by the member countries to set things like tariffs exclusively by mutual agreement. In other words: it's all or nothing (within the vagaries all kinds of legalese); so no; greece cannot go it alone without exiting the union.
  - return0 10y ago
    I am no expert, but the EU regulations exist to harmonize the internal market. Since UK was part of the EU, there is probably very little they can change in deals with individual EU countries.
- gpvos 10y ago
  As far as I know, the rules are such that no country can leave the euro of their own volition without also leaving the EU. Possibly, the other countries can expel a country from the euro. Then again, everything is political in the EU, so a lot is possible.
dang 10y ago
We detached this subthread from https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11968162 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11968162 and marked it off-topic.

by banach 10y ago

dnautics 10y ago

that's nonsense. 1) the German debt post WWI was imposed upon it. The Greek debt was taken on by the country itself. 2) News flash: Austerity only hurts the poor when the political elite choose to cut social programs instead of giving their cronies a haircut. But you know, it's easier to hold the poor hostage. 3) A huge part of the reason why greece can't pay its obligations is because their 1% thinks paying taxes is a joke. 4) Germany's "clever" out of the Treaty of Versailles was to devalue the currency and pay back in cheaper nominal payments. Greece can't do that because while the local central banks can do some easing shenanigans, they're still part of the eurozone and so the effects will be diluted because you can be damned sure that Germany and France won't play Greece's game in that matter. So, in short: Nothing at all like the interbellum. >The PR outfall of that debacle is probably what pushed the Brits to vote for exit. But yes, the Brits are very wise to exit, because (especially if they enter the eurozone, which is clearly the next step in ever closer union) they are definitely the "next germany". And that might even happen without joining the eurozone, by fiat.

Symmetry 10y ago
Greece in particular is sort of remarkable in how much of government spending goes to the top 20% and how little to the bottom 20%. See page 5 of this report. http://www.oecd.org/els/soc/OECD2014-Social-Expenditure-Update-Nov2014-8pages.pdf http://www.oecd.org/els/soc/OECD2014-Social-Expenditure-Upda...

nickik 10y ago

Their is a lot wrong with what you say. Clearly you are not up with current historical studies on the 'Treaty of Versaille'. The treaty was actually not particularly hard or in any way impossible to mean by Germany. If Germany had better leadership they could easily have moved passed it and be the most wealthy nation again. What they are doing to Greece is actually much worse then Versaille. It has to do with the issue that Greece should have defaulted years (I was arguing this even in 2008) and change their government. Because of EU (EMU) logic this can not happen. So Greece is forced to change its government in the context of huge debt and even worse a flat demand curve (look at EU NGDP and Greece NGDP). Greece is about the only country that actually did significant Austerity but its not working. The EU should have let them default or take over their debt completely. You are probably right that PR is the main issue. It was with 'Versaille' as well. German government PR is the main reason why you use 'Versaille' as an example of evil practice. Maybe the most successful example of PR in the last 100 years.

cygx 10y ago
If Germany had better leadership they could easily have moved passed it and be the most wealthy nation again. Germany actually was on the road to economic recovery when the Great Depression hit.
- nickik 10y ago
  That is a vastly oversimplified story. Germany actually did really good after WW1 until the Government escalated the inflation in a deliberate attempted to get a better deal. When they got that deal they again grew really well under the economic leadership of some smart economists. Then the Great Depression hit and Germany, wanting to stay on gold, got hit really hard. By 1934-1935 they overcame the shock and Hitler earns the credit. Fantastic book on this stuff: - The Deluge: The Great War, America and the Remaking of the Global Order, 1916-1931
deleted 10y ago
[deleted]
Retric 10y ago
Greece did not do meaningful Austerity, they let their debt continue to snowball and continued to spend more than they where taxing. http://www.statista.com/statistics/275335/government-revenue-and-spending-in-greece/ http://www.statista.com/statistics/275335/government-revenue...

fchopin 10y ago

Greece is a great country, but seems to be at this point a welfare state. Whether there had been Brexit or not, it had fallen on hard times. From what I understand, many of its people supported Brexit, because they feel that they have been let down by the EU, although they are not in a good position to leave the EU themselves. I wish the best for Greece; I think they will be able to overcome their current situation and be better for it in the end. It used to be a place that people longed to vacation in and saw as a gem of Europe. It is still the same country, regardless of their financial situation. Put up tens of thousands of travel posters that say, "Greece, Beauty on a Budget" around Europe, and you could solve that problem in a decade or less, perhaps.

mastazi 10y ago
Your first sentence seems to imply that "great countries" don't or should not provide welfare/public aid... Care to elaborate?
- slowernet 10y ago
  I think the poster was referring to the Greek economy's need for bailout/recapitalization from the EU, not provision of aid to their citizens.
  - mastazi 10y ago
    Yes, I just re-read the parent in light of your comment, it makes sense now, thank you.
banach 10y ago
I am not sure that I understand your use of the term "welfare state". My dictionary says: > a system whereby the government undertakes to protect the health and well-being of its citizens, especially those in financial or social need, by means of grants, pensions, and other benefits. The above is standard in all of the northern-European countries typically lauded for their economic success. Clearly, this was not what caused the collapse of the Greek economy. Of course, there are many alternative theories, but the most convincing one I am aware of is that it was the result of subprime lending by north-European (predominantly German) banks.

return0 10y ago

The greeks can choose to leave the eurozone (I am an greek an in favor of that myself). This shouldnt affect our position in the EU, it benefits us greatly and has guaranteed a relative stability for a long time. The UK is our #1 source of tourism (that contributes 2.7% of our GDP) - it's sad that brexit is making it harder for them to visit.

ethbro 10y ago
So, question from afar: with a UK no longer in the EU, what's to stop Greece (or anywhere else) from renegotiating EU-like deals with them? I realize it's a bit more work, but is there any EU authority that could block member states from doing this?
- deleted 10y ago
  [deleted]
- emn13 10y ago
  I'm by no means an expert, but from my limited understanding there isn't so much an EU "authority" that prevents this, but rather a large group of rules that each country agreed to. In particular, the agreement that protects greece from protectionism is really just an agreement by the member countries to set things like tariffs exclusively by mutual agreement. In other words: it's all or nothing (within the vagaries all kinds of legalese); so no; greece cannot go it alone without exiting the union.
- return0 10y ago
  I am no expert, but the EU regulations exist to harmonize the internal market. Since UK was part of the EU, there is probably very little they can change in deals with individual EU countries.
gpvos 10y ago
As far as I know, the rules are such that no country can leave the euro of their own volition without also leaving the EU. Possibly, the other countries can expel a country from the euro. Then again, everything is political in the EU, so a lot is possible.

dang 10y ago

We detached this subthread from https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11968162 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11968162 and marked it off-topic.