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Could it have predicted the Brexit vote? Fewer dry goods shipped == less money for people shipping them == unhappy working people in England == these vote Leav
by biztos 10y ago
Could it have predicted the Brexit vote?
Fewer dry goods shipped == less money for people shipping them == unhappy working people in England == these vote Leave.
(Ridiculous oversimplification, but the article is suggesting this kind of prediction could be meaningful.)
- lmm 10y agoMaybe. How could you even measure though? You can't get a statistical correlation for an event that only happens once.
- Florin_Andrei 10y agoI think it's difficult to come up with hard numbers, but these things are all indicative of very broad, high level trends. Countries are turning inwards, global cohesion is weakening. You have a loud demagogue in the US arguing for building walls around the country. You have the UK voting for a divorce from the EU; and you have right-wing extremists in the EU applauding that decision (Marine Le Pen, etc). You have a totalitarian figure like Putin dominating the East for a long time. And fundamental indicators like the BDI seem to show a decrease in global exchange. If not the whole world, then at least the West broadly speaking (North America, EU and Russia) is like that person who is gradually slipping into a nasty depression without noticing it, slowly becoming introverted and fearful. A sign of health in this situation would not be further isolation and saber rattling, but a turn outwards, and increased cooperation, and a frank discussion about what's really going on. This holds true for persons as well as for countries.