7 ms·

So Germany will risk 1\5 of German car workers because it wants to send a message?

by UK-AL 10y ago

barrkel 10y ago
There are no circumstances whatsoever that the EU will give the UK a trade deal like Norway / Switzerland / Iceland / etc. without the UK paying for the EU budget and allowing free movement of people, for example. All the things that the UK population voted against are exactly what prevents them from getting a trade deal. Something will have to give. If you want to go with the rationalist perspective you seem to be advocating, then the UK government will have to be anti-democratic and strike a deal explicitly against their citizen's declared interests. (This vote is particularly vexing for me since I'm Irish (voted stay) and now will have to sell my house in order to leave. Quite upsetting, overall.)
- FreeFull 10y ago
  Northern Ireland might decide to become part of Ireland though, which would keep you in the EU. I wouldn't sell your house yet.
  - atmercy 10y ago
    People in the North are UK citizens already (and free to also get Irish citizenship). I believe they mean they're an Irish citizen living in the UK (maybe England itself) and they're worried that they might not be able to stay living there.
  - chillydawg 10y ago
    Irish citizens living in the UK have a right to vote in all UK elections. I think the GP was one of those, rather than a NI resident.
eva1984 10y ago
They can sell cars to other countries. And UK will still buy them, just fewer.
tonyedgecombe 10y ago
Germany is only one of 27 countries making this decison.
- tehbeard 10y ago
  Making the assumption that all 27 are equal and cannot possibly lean on others.
  - anacleto 10y ago
    Definitely not the case.
  - tonyedgecombe 10y ago
    Germany has a lot of might and will lean on the others but it remains to be seen how much effect that has, I have my doubts.
- PopsiclePete 10y ago
  Riiiiiight. And in NATO, all NATO members are "equal" too, right? The US is just as important as Bulgaria, they're just "members"? Germany, where the ECB is, which is the most powerful economy in Europe, which basically controls the single European currency, is "just another country" in the EU, with an opinion that matters just as much as that of Portugal? You honestly believe that?
  - tonyedgecombe 10y ago
    I believe they will act in their own interest.
_pmf_ 10y ago
> So Germany will risk 1\5 of German car workers because it wants to send a message? Let's be clear: it's the UK that felt obliged to send a message. The rest of Europe's countries does not have delusions of grandeur and feel disenfranchised by foreign workers making minimum wage.
- Chris2048 10y ago
  > The rest of Europe's countries does not have delusions of grandeur and feel disenfranchised by foreign workers making minimum wage. There are many reasons to leave the EU, other than "delusions of grandeur" (the US seems to do pretty well..) and xenophoia. Perhaps the UK wanted to make choices without being slandered like this.
  - _pmf_ 10y ago
    > Perhaps the UK wanted to make choices What choice? You can wish that the refugee crisis would not exist, but the choice has been made when deciding whether or not to be the 6th largest weapon exporter. Acting like an overrun victim now is a bit schizophrenic and it's sad to see 52 percent small minded bigots pulling down a country in this way.
    - Chris2048 10y ago
      52% bigots? What an astute grasp of politics..
kodfodrasz 10y ago
Sanctions against Russia hurt the German economy, and the workers, just to send a message. Accepting lots of troublesome unskilled illegal immigrants hurt the German economy, and the workers, but sent a message. I think I can see a pattern here...
- majewsky 10y ago
  > Accepting lots of troublesome unskilled illegal immigrants hurt the German economy It's the other way around: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/may/09/germany-imf-economy-growth-refugees-migrants-labour-ageing-population https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/may/09/germany-imf...
  - kodfodrasz 10y ago
    This is pure bullshit. Lot of the illegals cannot even read and write. They don't know the language. Most of them are also not refugees. They will be liabilities. The skilled labour from the Eastern-European countries is an asset on the other hand. Actually robots will take away lots of jobs. Why do we need more unskilled people in our lands, when soon even the skilled labour will be automatized, and unemployment will grow further?
    - majewsky 10y ago
      > Lots of the illegals cannot even read and write. Except they can. Many Syrian refugees are proficient in English, and many even speak German. There was strong collaboration between German and Syrian universities historically. (I'm not saying that everyone can read and write, but then again, Western societies have a surprising number of total and functional analphabets.) And re the automation argument: Automation only takes away medium-skilled jobs. Jobs are for unskilled people because they don't require training, and that's also why they are a poor fit for robots. (Robots don't like irregular situations and need programming for new tasks, whereas you can easily explain a new task to a human worker in a few sentences.) I always laugh at how people equate more people in a country with growing unemployment rates. If this really worried you, you would move to outlaw procreation, since procreation produces new workers to compete with you about 18 years from now.
Tomte 10y ago
Why should 1/5 of car exports lead to exactly the same propostion of lost jobs? That argument even prima facie wrong. And it's not about Germany. It's about 27 countries, some of which don't even like Germany too much right now.
Atropos 10y ago
Yes. I am German and pro-European and I would happily take a deal that our GDP will be cut 20% if UK's GP is cut even 10% in return. Not to punish the UK, but to firmly establish the principle that leaving the EU is painful. While this might not be the optimum from an economics point of view, it serves to keep the European Union alive - which is much more important in the long run (no more war etc...).
- sievebrain 10y ago
  I suspect you will find that your enjoyment of self harm is not shared by most Germans. Not to punish the UK, but to firmly establish the principle that leaving the EU is painful Do you realise how crazy you people sound? "There's no punishment for leaving the Mafia, you just have to understand the principle that it will be as painful as possible". The EU has warped into an ideological disease that sees European people's turned against one another by an absolutist religion that sees diversity as a flaw to be fixed and believes its own hype about stopping wars. The EU does nothing to stop war. If turning Europe into a single country could stop war, there'd be no civil wars, but today the only wars are civil wars.
  - Atropos 10y ago
    It does not matter much if it is shared by most Germans - what matters is if it is shared by a small elite of German, French, and EU Commission/Parliament leaders. Do you really think the German population will rise up if you tell them "Hold up, discriminating against the UK in derivatives clearing rules will cost you 0.0x% of your GDP!" And to most people (outside of the UK), it is quite obvious anyway that contracts negotiated between friends cannot be transposed 1:1 into a relationship between entities who are not friends.
- GunboatDiplomat 10y ago
  You realize that that is Great Depression level shit... last time that happened, you guys went a little nuts.

So Germany will risk 1\5 of German car workers because it wants to send a message?

by UK-AL 10y ago

So Germany will risk 1\5 of German car workers because it wants to send a message?

There are no circumstances whatsoever that the EU will give the UK a trade deal like Norway / Switzerland / Iceland / etc. without the UK paying for the EU budget and allowing free movement of people, for example. All the things that the UK population voted against are exactly what prevents them from getting a trade deal. Something will have to give. If you want to go with the rationalist perspective you seem to be advocating, then the UK government will have to be anti-democratic and strike a deal explicitly against their citizen's declared interests. (This vote is particularly vexing for me since I'm Irish (voted stay) and now will have to sell my house in order to leave. Quite upsetting, overall.)

FreeFull 10y ago
Northern Ireland might decide to become part of Ireland though, which would keep you in the EU. I wouldn't sell your house yet.
- atmercy 10y ago
  People in the North are UK citizens already (and free to also get Irish citizenship). I believe they mean they're an Irish citizen living in the UK (maybe England itself) and they're worried that they might not be able to stay living there.
- chillydawg 10y ago
  Irish citizens living in the UK have a right to vote in all UK elections. I think the GP was one of those, rather than a NI resident.

eva1984 10y ago

They can sell cars to other countries. And UK will still buy them, just fewer.

tonyedgecombe 10y ago

Germany is only one of 27 countries making this decison.

tehbeard 10y ago
Making the assumption that all 27 are equal and cannot possibly lean on others.
- anacleto 10y ago
  Definitely not the case.
- tonyedgecombe 10y ago
  Germany has a lot of might and will lean on the others but it remains to be seen how much effect that has, I have my doubts.
PopsiclePete 10y ago
Riiiiiight. And in NATO, all NATO members are "equal" too, right? The US is just as important as Bulgaria, they're just "members"? Germany, where the ECB is, which is the most powerful economy in Europe, which basically controls the single European currency, is "just another country" in the EU, with an opinion that matters just as much as that of Portugal? You honestly believe that?
- tonyedgecombe 10y ago
  I believe they will act in their own interest.

_pmf_ 10y ago

> So Germany will risk 1\5 of German car workers because it wants to send a message? Let's be clear: it's the UK that felt obliged to send a message. The rest of Europe's countries does not have delusions of grandeur and feel disenfranchised by foreign workers making minimum wage.

Chris2048 10y ago
> The rest of Europe's countries does not have delusions of grandeur and feel disenfranchised by foreign workers making minimum wage. There are many reasons to leave the EU, other than "delusions of grandeur" (the US seems to do pretty well..) and xenophoia. Perhaps the UK wanted to make choices without being slandered like this.
- _pmf_ 10y ago
  > Perhaps the UK wanted to make choices What choice? You can wish that the refugee crisis would not exist, but the choice has been made when deciding whether or not to be the 6th largest weapon exporter. Acting like an overrun victim now is a bit schizophrenic and it's sad to see 52 percent small minded bigots pulling down a country in this way.
  - Chris2048 10y ago
    52% bigots? What an astute grasp of politics..

kodfodrasz 10y ago

Sanctions against Russia hurt the German economy, and the workers, just to send a message. Accepting lots of troublesome unskilled illegal immigrants hurt the German economy, and the workers, but sent a message. I think I can see a pattern here...

majewsky 10y ago
> Accepting lots of troublesome unskilled illegal immigrants hurt the German economy It's the other way around: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/may/09/germany-imf-economy-growth-refugees-migrants-labour-ageing-population https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/may/09/germany-imf...
- kodfodrasz 10y ago
  This is pure bullshit. Lot of the illegals cannot even read and write. They don't know the language. Most of them are also not refugees. They will be liabilities. The skilled labour from the Eastern-European countries is an asset on the other hand. Actually robots will take away lots of jobs. Why do we need more unskilled people in our lands, when soon even the skilled labour will be automatized, and unemployment will grow further?
  - majewsky 10y ago
    > Lots of the illegals cannot even read and write. Except they can. Many Syrian refugees are proficient in English, and many even speak German. There was strong collaboration between German and Syrian universities historically. (I'm not saying that everyone can read and write, but then again, Western societies have a surprising number of total and functional analphabets.) And re the automation argument: Automation only takes away medium-skilled jobs. Jobs are for unskilled people because they don't require training, and that's also why they are a poor fit for robots. (Robots don't like irregular situations and need programming for new tasks, whereas you can easily explain a new task to a human worker in a few sentences.) I always laugh at how people equate more people in a country with growing unemployment rates. If this really worried you, you would move to outlaw procreation, since procreation produces new workers to compete with you about 18 years from now.

Tomte 10y ago

Why should 1/5 of car exports lead to exactly the same propostion of lost jobs? That argument even prima facie wrong. And it's not about Germany. It's about 27 countries, some of which don't even like Germany too much right now.

Atropos 10y ago

Yes. I am German and pro-European and I would happily take a deal that our GDP will be cut 20% if UK's GP is cut even 10% in return. Not to punish the UK, but to firmly establish the principle that leaving the EU is painful. While this might not be the optimum from an economics point of view, it serves to keep the European Union alive - which is much more important in the long run (no more war etc...).

sievebrain 10y ago
I suspect you will find that your enjoyment of self harm is not shared by most Germans. Not to punish the UK, but to firmly establish the principle that leaving the EU is painful Do you realise how crazy you people sound? "There's no punishment for leaving the Mafia, you just have to understand the principle that it will be as painful as possible". The EU has warped into an ideological disease that sees European people's turned against one another by an absolutist religion that sees diversity as a flaw to be fixed and believes its own hype about stopping wars. The EU does nothing to stop war. If turning Europe into a single country could stop war, there'd be no civil wars, but today the only wars are civil wars.
- Atropos 10y ago
  It does not matter much if it is shared by most Germans - what matters is if it is shared by a small elite of German, French, and EU Commission/Parliament leaders. Do you really think the German population will rise up if you tell them "Hold up, discriminating against the UK in derivatives clearing rules will cost you 0.0x% of your GDP!" And to most people (outside of the UK), it is quite obvious anyway that contracts negotiated between friends cannot be transposed 1:1 into a relationship between entities who are not friends.
GunboatDiplomat 10y ago
You realize that that is Great Depression level shit... last time that happened, you guys went a little nuts.