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My biggest fear is another Scottish referendum... the last one was bitter and polarizing. I have just spent the last 20 minutes drafting letters to my MP and M

My biggest fear is another Scottish referendum... the last one was bitter and polarizing. I have just spent the last 20 minutes drafting letters to my MP and MSP basically telling them I do not want another referendum.

elygre 10y ago
Considering that the english just voted Scotland out of EU, it makes perfect sense for the Scottish to reclaim their own future.
- threeseed 10y ago
  Yep 60% of Scotland and 75% of Glasgow from reports voted to Remain. Northern Ireland is also going to be one to watch.
  - MLR 10y ago
    Scotland maybe, though if people have any sense they'll make sure the business is all done first and tell them to cool their heels. Northern Ireland has absolutely no chance of seceding, they can't go it alone as a separate country, and there's absolutely no appetite for unification from either side.
    - threeseed 10y ago
      There is appetite now for closer ties within Ireland. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-northern-ireland-eu-referendum-result-latest-live-border-poll-united-martin-mcguinness-a7099276.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-norther... The EU train is leaving and governments need to make a decision whether they want to get on or stay off.
    - cygx 10y ago
      there's absolutely no appetite for unification from either side Which sides? Sinn Féin politicians have already called for a unification vote...
    - kriro 10y ago
      I'm fairly concerned that Northern Ireland has high potential to become a bloody battleground. IRA activity will certainly increase. Scotland is less messy and would separate fairly easily imo (but you never know British nationalism is on the rise so letting them leave could be seen as something to prevent at all costs)
      - k-mcgrady 10y ago
        >> "I'm fairly concerned that Northern Ireland has high potential to become a bloody battleground." This would be the first time that those who want Irish unity could actually sway a significant number of unionist voters. Violence would ruin that opportunity so I doubt it would happen. This vote has increased the possibility of their goals being achieved politically. If anything I would expect violence to rise on the unionist side if it did look like a border poll was going to take place and not go their way.
    - k-mcgrady 10y ago
      >> "there's absolutely no appetite for unification from either side." There is now. Leaving the EU actually brings the Ireland debate away from typically nationalist/unionist politics to actual real issues. If the Republic has to secure it's border with the North (as I believe countries on the border of Europe are required to do so) consider the impact on people who live in border towns. A lot of people living just within the north side of the border work in the south and vice versa - they would have to go through border control every morning and evening. And what happens to the large number of ROI citizens living and working in NI (and vice versa). This actually opens the debate on unity up and brings it past the typical dividing line politics. It will also likely fuel nationalist support as the democratic will of people in NI (and Scotland) is essentially ignored thanks to people in England. It's a very strange situation. I think it's still highly unlikely but if Irish unification is ever going to happen this will be the catalyst.
      - maus42 10y ago
        >A lot of people living just within the north side of the border work in the south and vice versa - they would have to go through border control every morning and evening. It's just not that there would be border control, there's also question would they need visas to get through the border control?
        mcv 10y ago
        A visa agreement is very easy. I don't think that's going to be a big problem. But the border checkpoints, they will definitely have to come if NI doesn't reunite with Ireland.
      - reitoei 10y ago
        Get real. Stopping at a checkpoint is not going to drive an bid for reunification. You're also forgetting about the majority of people in the republic who simply do not care, or have become completely jaded with, the north or border areas. The further south you go, the less people care.
        10y ago
  - seanalltogether 10y ago
    The people in N. Ireland have been resistant to a referendum because it's just asking for too much trouble. Few people here want this region to destabilize. However there are two outcomes that I believe would convince residents to risk the trouble of a referendum. 1. If Scotland leaves, or 2. If border/trade restrictions with Ireland become unbearable.
tinbucket 10y ago
A big part of the reason I wanted to remain was to avoid another independence referendum. It looks like it's probably unavoidable now. And it's going to be another horrible round of extremely divisive, poisonous political activity that will leave a lot of people unhappy no matter what happens. But this time I might actually vote for independence because I'm not sure a Britain outside the EU is one I want to live in.
- laksjd 10y ago
  I think the next Scottish referendum will be a much harder decision for each voter personally. The previous one obvious wasn't a throw-away decision either but Scotland and England being separate EU member states would have meant little difference in daily live for most people. Now the next referendum will be a lot more significant since it'll effectively be a UK vs EU decision. Either you follow the English into isolation or you suddenly have a very real border between England and Scotland with customs&immigrations checkpoints and similar things.
  - mattmanser 10y ago
    Why would you think Scotland get to join the EU automatically? There's plenty of speculation Spain won't want it and will veto because it might fuel Catalan independence.
    - restalis 10y ago
      Isn't Scotland kind of part of EU right now? They would only choose to remain so.
      - dragonwriter 10y ago
        > Isn't Scotland kind of part of EU right now? Scotland is part of an existing member state of the EU, but it is not a member state of the EU. Were it to become independent, it would likely have to join the EU as a new member state. There's perhaps an argument to be made that if the UK broke up, each successor would have a claim to be a successor to the UKs treaty obligations and benefits in general, which might carry some weight (though would be extremely complicated for a treaty arrangement like the EU) if it happened before the UK formally started the process of withdrawing from the EU (if it happened after that, even viewing Scotland as a successor to the breaking-up-UK would leave it a short-term member of the EU in the process of exiting under the Article 50 process, inheriting the exit date that the UK has, and needing to negotiate its own exit agreement if it wanted anything but the default exit terms.)
cxromos 10y ago
I might be wrong but wasn't one of the arguments made to Scotland to stay in the UK that they need it for the upcoming referendum on decision whether the UK is going to enter the EU or exit the EU. Scotland for sometime voiced their desire for the UK to stay in the EU.

elygre 10y ago

Considering that the english just voted Scotland out of EU, it makes perfect sense for the Scottish to reclaim their own future.

threeseed 10y ago
Yep 60% of Scotland and 75% of Glasgow from reports voted to Remain. Northern Ireland is also going to be one to watch.
- MLR 10y ago
  Scotland maybe, though if people have any sense they'll make sure the business is all done first and tell them to cool their heels. Northern Ireland has absolutely no chance of seceding, they can't go it alone as a separate country, and there's absolutely no appetite for unification from either side.
  - threeseed 10y ago
    There is appetite now for closer ties within Ireland. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-northern-ireland-eu-referendum-result-latest-live-border-poll-united-martin-mcguinness-a7099276.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-norther... The EU train is leaving and governments need to make a decision whether they want to get on or stay off.
  - cygx 10y ago
    there's absolutely no appetite for unification from either side Which sides? Sinn Féin politicians have already called for a unification vote...
  - kriro 10y ago
    I'm fairly concerned that Northern Ireland has high potential to become a bloody battleground. IRA activity will certainly increase. Scotland is less messy and would separate fairly easily imo (but you never know British nationalism is on the rise so letting them leave could be seen as something to prevent at all costs)
    - k-mcgrady 10y ago
      >> "I'm fairly concerned that Northern Ireland has high potential to become a bloody battleground." This would be the first time that those who want Irish unity could actually sway a significant number of unionist voters. Violence would ruin that opportunity so I doubt it would happen. This vote has increased the possibility of their goals being achieved politically. If anything I would expect violence to rise on the unionist side if it did look like a border poll was going to take place and not go their way.
  - k-mcgrady 10y ago
    >> "there's absolutely no appetite for unification from either side." There is now. Leaving the EU actually brings the Ireland debate away from typically nationalist/unionist politics to actual real issues. If the Republic has to secure it's border with the North (as I believe countries on the border of Europe are required to do so) consider the impact on people who live in border towns. A lot of people living just within the north side of the border work in the south and vice versa - they would have to go through border control every morning and evening. And what happens to the large number of ROI citizens living and working in NI (and vice versa). This actually opens the debate on unity up and brings it past the typical dividing line politics. It will also likely fuel nationalist support as the democratic will of people in NI (and Scotland) is essentially ignored thanks to people in England. It's a very strange situation. I think it's still highly unlikely but if Irish unification is ever going to happen this will be the catalyst.
    - maus42 10y ago
      >A lot of people living just within the north side of the border work in the south and vice versa - they would have to go through border control every morning and evening. It's just not that there would be border control, there's also question would they need visas to get through the border control?
      - mcv 10y ago
        A visa agreement is very easy. I don't think that's going to be a big problem. But the border checkpoints, they will definitely have to come if NI doesn't reunite with Ireland.
    - reitoei 10y ago
      Get real. Stopping at a checkpoint is not going to drive an bid for reunification. You're also forgetting about the majority of people in the republic who simply do not care, or have become completely jaded with, the north or border areas. The further south you go, the less people care.
      - 10y ago
- seanalltogether 10y ago
  The people in N. Ireland have been resistant to a referendum because it's just asking for too much trouble. Few people here want this region to destabilize. However there are two outcomes that I believe would convince residents to risk the trouble of a referendum. 1. If Scotland leaves, or 2. If border/trade restrictions with Ireland become unbearable.

tinbucket 10y ago

A big part of the reason I wanted to remain was to avoid another independence referendum. It looks like it's probably unavoidable now. And it's going to be another horrible round of extremely divisive, poisonous political activity that will leave a lot of people unhappy no matter what happens. But this time I might actually vote for independence because I'm not sure a Britain outside the EU is one I want to live in.

laksjd 10y ago
I think the next Scottish referendum will be a much harder decision for each voter personally. The previous one obvious wasn't a throw-away decision either but Scotland and England being separate EU member states would have meant little difference in daily live for most people. Now the next referendum will be a lot more significant since it'll effectively be a UK vs EU decision. Either you follow the English into isolation or you suddenly have a very real border between England and Scotland with customs&immigrations checkpoints and similar things.
- mattmanser 10y ago
  Why would you think Scotland get to join the EU automatically? There's plenty of speculation Spain won't want it and will veto because it might fuel Catalan independence.
  - restalis 10y ago
    Isn't Scotland kind of part of EU right now? They would only choose to remain so.
    - dragonwriter 10y ago
      > Isn't Scotland kind of part of EU right now? Scotland is part of an existing member state of the EU, but it is not a member state of the EU. Were it to become independent, it would likely have to join the EU as a new member state. There's perhaps an argument to be made that if the UK broke up, each successor would have a claim to be a successor to the UKs treaty obligations and benefits in general, which might carry some weight (though would be extremely complicated for a treaty arrangement like the EU) if it happened before the UK formally started the process of withdrawing from the EU (if it happened after that, even viewing Scotland as a successor to the breaking-up-UK would leave it a short-term member of the EU in the process of exiting under the Article 50 process, inheriting the exit date that the UK has, and needing to negotiate its own exit agreement if it wanted anything but the default exit terms.)

cxromos 10y ago

I might be wrong but wasn't one of the arguments made to Scotland to stay in the UK that they need it for the upcoming referendum on decision whether the UK is going to enter the EU or exit the EU. Scotland for sometime voiced their desire for the UK to stay in the EU.