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My computer directory on Trump is mostly just primary sources, that is, URLs at YouTube of complete speeches, rallies, interviews, transcripts prepared by C-SPA
by graycat 10y ago
My computer directory on Trump is mostly just primary sources, that is, URLs at YouTube of complete speeches, rallies, interviews, transcripts prepared by C-SPAN, Time, NYT, etc., stuff pulled down from Trump's Web site, etc.
Trump University -- Calling it a university is a bit much. I heard his description of what it was -- that sounded okay. There is a role for education that is closer to practice than in the usual universities -- I used to be a prof in a relatively good B-school and can have some sympathy for what Trump claimed he was doing. But such a thing has to be buyer beware -- actually, much the same for anything in education. My guess would be that Trump started his university mostly for making money, enhancing his brand, and, maybe, getting leads on some hiring. Was there some high pressure selling? Maybe. That's pretty standard for for-profit education. There were some interviews with some people that claimed to like the courses, found them useful, and made money with them. Those students looked like relatively mature business people. I can believe that to get a lot of financial benefit from the real estate parts, would have to be good in the business of real estate or at least willing to work hard to be.
IMHO, Trump has been in business; one pillar of his success has been publicity to build a brand; in this, he is good at tooting his own horn, relatively loudly; he's nearly always selling, say, ABC, always be closing. He has admitted that he exaggerates, but he did say "harmless" exaggerations. Maybe some of the exaggerations are not so harmless.
If he wins, and I certainly believe he will, especially after his Clinton Cash speech, which I believe is just his first of a continuing flow of shots at Hillary (and I suspect her legal problems will keep her off the ballot in November -- I suspect that the FBI is building a rock solid case with just the right charge to bring), I believe that what he will do will be an okay attempt at what he's promised considering that his promises were from someone selling hard, ABC, with some exaggeration.
For improving on ObamaCare, he has already outlined his ideas, and it seems that the main idea is just to let insurance companies sell across state lines and craft policies quite narrowly targeted, a few customers at a time. So, you pay for only what you need and get a relatively good price on that. And maybe he will ask the medical profession to publish price lists. A lot of people will believe that that will beat ObamaCare and, thus, have Trump keep his promise.
For jobs, broadly I believe that there really is a lot he can do. One reason he can be "the greatest jobs president" is timing -- we're about ready to come out of The Great Recession. The economy still needs some help coming out, but I believe that Trump can supply that.
For bringing jobs back, I have to suspect that he can but it will be a quite slow process, for much progress, all of his first term. Why? Because businesses will have to get started, and the labor costs can't be so high too few people will buy the results.
But there are other reasons he can be a great jobs president -- we have about 95 million people out of the labor force.
Another reason: He will say
"drill, Baby, drill" and "all of the above" on energy supplies.
Another reason: Rummy said this week that in the 1950s we were spending about 10% of GDP on the military and are down to, what was it, about 4% now. Well, Trump may take us back to 10%, and that will create a lot of jobs, say, like Reagan did when he spent a lot on the US military.
Lowering taxes will help getting the economy going and create jobs.
How to balance the budget? Get the economy going, get people better jobs so that they pay more taxes, put a lot of the 95 million back to work, etc. Don't forget the
tariffs. So, get a huge flood of new tax revenue. Does this arithmetic add up? I suspect that he will mostly MAKE add up but not easily. To have this arithmetic add up, he will be constrained.
If he slaps tariffs on imports, then he might create some inflation. I suspect that effect will slow his ability to do much of what he wants in the economy.
Maybe he has some good economic advisers who have outlined a plan that will likely work.
Enforcing the immigration laws? Sure, he can do that right away.
Export illegals? Make a lot of progress with just one word, e-Verify.
I wish we knew a lot more about just what and how Trump will do things, but I doubt we will learn much more before the election.
If Hillary runs, I suspect that there won't be much left of her after Trump beats up on her from now until election day.
Trump is a tough, smart cookie who is good at winning -- I believe he will win against Hillary or whomever he Dems run.
But I don't think that Trump is really running a scam.
- kbenson 10y ago> My computer directory on Trump is mostly just primary sources, that is, URLs at YouTube of complete speeches, rallies, interviews, transcripts prepared by C-SPAN, Time, NYT, etc., stuff pulled down from Trump's Web site, etc. Those are primary sources if you are trying to confirm what Trump said, but they do nothing to indicate if what Trump said was correct. > Trump University -- Calling it a university is a bit much. I heard his description of what it was -- that sounded okay. I'm much less interested in what Trump says about it than what the documentation says about how it was actually run. I really do advise you to look into this issue closer. Here's something to get you started[1][2] (it has a fairly obvious anti-trump stance, but there are plenty of facts to garner from it). First, he has no idea who his "handpicked" instructors were, even though that was supposedly a big selling point. Instructors had official scripts to go off in which they talked about dinners with Trump. The brief, filed in federal district court in San Diego, further asserts that Donald Trump admitted under oath that he retains no real estate techniques beyond what has been published in his books. In other words, students who paid as much as $60,000 to Trump University over the course of a year could have gotten the exact same information through a $10 book purchased on Amazon. Students in the program’s introductory three-day seminar were told to use their break times to double or even quadruple their credit card limits and were asked to fill out financial statements so they’d be prepared to finance lucrative real estate transactions. Instructors then used those higher credit limits and financial information to pressure the students into enrolling in Trump University’s $34,995 Gold Program. Trump University sold “one year apprenticeship” programs for $1,495 that were in actuality a three-day workshop and a 1-800 number to a “client advisor.” Even though students were told they would get to have their picture taken with Trump, usually (possibly every single time, I'm not sure there's a record of him ever showing up) that ended up being with a a cardboard cutout of Trump. > There were some interviews with some people that claimed to like the courses, found them useful, and made money with them. The only ones I've really heard of so far were people that were interviewed before the course ended, and expected to receive additional help from the course (contacts/placements, etc) ended. They were incentivized to not speak ill of the course they still hoped would help provide some return on the money they spent. I don't have a source for that though, so if you have something contradictory, it may be more accurate. > we're about ready to come out of The Great Recession. We've been out of that recession for years. The unemployment rate is very low[3]. It's a mistake to assume that coming out of a recession means that everyone will get an equivalent job and make the same amount of money as before. In this case, real household income is less in many cases, which is not good. That's not a factor of unemployment though (as the numbers show), but from lower paying jobs replacing previously higher paying jobs. Any policy to "create jobs" that doesn't address this isn't going to do much good, IMO. > I wish we knew a lot more about just what and how Trump will do things, but I doubt we will learn much more before the election. I find it troubling that you, and many other people, accept that. I don't think anyone should accepted as a valid candidate that purposefully avoids specifics in favor of wide, general, unverifiable statements. The United States is not a business. The Presidency is not a business-like position. There is very little overlap between a businessman and a politician, and the skills needed, IMO. For one, the President doesn't have that much power. Their biggest effects are to have a public voice, veto bills (if not overturned!), and to try to spur the legislative branches into motion. Want to build a wall? You should be looking towards your Congressmen and Senators, since it's not going to happen without them. 1: https://theintercept.com/2016/03/04/donald-trumps-sworn-testimony-about-his-university-i-dont-know-the-people/ https://theintercept.com/2016/03/04/donald-trumps-sworn-test... 2: http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/432010/trump-university-scam http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/432010/trump-university... 3: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000 http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000