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make money with almost no risk I still think p=1.0 was not possibly achievable via any model at that point in the counting, which means betting based on it wou
by ubernostrum 10y ago
make money with almost no risk
I still think p=1.0 was not possibly achievable via any model at that point in the counting, which means betting based on it would have been an enormous risk. The fact that the bet would have paid off makes no difference; especially given how close the vote seems to have gone, a coin flip would have gotten it right half the time, and I doubt you'd say that a coin flipper who just declares 100% confidence has a good model.
- danieltillett 10y agoThe model was almost exactly spot on, while the bookies were still offering 6/4 on for remain at the time I originally posted. The betting market really was not adjusting to the changing data and was way off on the real odds - this is quite rare. I certainly hope that the people who made money off Chris’ model follow his suggestion and donate to the Jo Cox fund.
- eru 10y agoThe odds were advertised---but were they actually still accepting bids at these odds?
- danieltillett 10y agoI don’t know - they certainly were in my imaginary account :)