3 ms·
25% chance of leaving is not the same as "they are definitely going to stay". I don't see how you can call a percentage based prediction "quite wrong" if it doe
by asddubs 10y ago
25% chance of leaving is not the same as "they are definitely going to stay". I don't see how you can call a percentage based prediction "quite wrong" if it doesn't end up happening.
- addicted 10y agoAgreed. They'd be wrong if they made a bunch of 25% predictions and the 25% predictions happened more than 1/4 times.
- asddubs 10y agoah, thank you, that's what I was trying to say but couldn't quite figure out how to say
- peterkshultz 10y agoFair enough. Perhaps my surprise comes from the fact that the prediction markets got it wrong as well. You're right nevertheless--25% is a meaningful probability.