4 ms·

I had been following the likelihood of a Brexit on Bloomberg. Before polls opened today, they said there was a 25% chance of the UK leaving. Seems they were qui

I had been following the likelihood of a Brexit on Bloomberg. Before polls opened today, they said there was a 25% chance of the UK leaving. Seems they were quite, quite wrong. http://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2016-brexit-watch/ http://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2016-brexit-watch/

asddubs 10y ago
25% chance of leaving is not the same as "they are definitely going to stay". I don't see how you can call a percentage based prediction "quite wrong" if it doesn't end up happening.
- addicted 10y ago
  Agreed. They'd be wrong if they made a bunch of 25% predictions and the 25% predictions happened more than 1/4 times.
  - asddubs 10y ago
    ah, thank you, that's what I was trying to say but couldn't quite figure out how to say
- peterkshultz 10y ago
  Fair enough. Perhaps my surprise comes from the fact that the prediction markets got it wrong as well. You're right nevertheless--25% is a meaningful probability.
sharp11 10y ago
Yes, interesting that the prediction markets got this quite wrong as well.
Tomte 10y ago
Why? 25% is a very significant chunk. You'd expect the 25% option to happen more often than just now and then. 25% of the time, actually.
xienze 10y ago
I don't think it's terribly surprising. When people are demonized for their political beliefs (i.e., you're stupid and/or racist if you support Brexit), the truth will only come out with anonymity. Hence, polling becomes much more unreliable.
- venomsnake 10y ago
  This bodes well for Trump ...
  - tim333 10y ago
    The polls were way closer for Brexit than Trump http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2016/06/britain-s-eu-referendum http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2016/06/britain... http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-general-election-trump-vs-clinton/edit#!minpct=25&maxpct=60&mindate=2014-01-01&maxdate=2016-05-23&smoothing=less&showpoints=yes&showsplines=yes&hiddenpollsters=&hiddensubpops=&partisanship=S,P,N&parties=D,R,I,N&selected=clinton,trump&fudge=1 http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-general-el...
    - venomsnake 10y ago
      And the stigma of being trump supporter is way higher.

asddubs 10y ago

25% chance of leaving is not the same as "they are definitely going to stay". I don't see how you can call a percentage based prediction "quite wrong" if it doesn't end up happening.

addicted 10y ago
Agreed. They'd be wrong if they made a bunch of 25% predictions and the 25% predictions happened more than 1/4 times.
- asddubs 10y ago
  ah, thank you, that's what I was trying to say but couldn't quite figure out how to say
peterkshultz 10y ago
Fair enough. Perhaps my surprise comes from the fact that the prediction markets got it wrong as well. You're right nevertheless--25% is a meaningful probability.

sharp11 10y ago

Yes, interesting that the prediction markets got this quite wrong as well.

Tomte 10y ago

Why? 25% is a very significant chunk. You'd expect the 25% option to happen more often than just now and then. 25% of the time, actually.

xienze 10y ago

I don't think it's terribly surprising. When people are demonized for their political beliefs (i.e., you're stupid and/or racist if you support Brexit), the truth will only come out with anonymity. Hence, polling becomes much more unreliable.

venomsnake 10y ago
This bodes well for Trump ...
- tim333 10y ago
  The polls were way closer for Brexit than Trump http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2016/06/britain-s-eu-referendum http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2016/06/britain... http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-general-election-trump-vs-clinton/edit#!minpct=25&maxpct=60&mindate=2014-01-01&maxdate=2016-05-23&smoothing=less&showpoints=yes&showsplines=yes&hiddenpollsters=&hiddensubpops=&partisanship=S,P,N&parties=D,R,I,N&selected=clinton,trump&fudge=1 http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-general-el...
  - venomsnake 10y ago
    And the stigma of being trump supporter is way higher.