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I think that the EU will see the UK leave as a slap. So it will definitely slap back, especially Germany. I think with this result UK gave the ok to Germany to
by muse900 10y ago
I think that the EU will see the UK leave as a slap. So it will definitely slap back, especially Germany. I think with this result UK gave the ok to Germany to actually push UK's economy into a devaluation and then e.g Berlin can become the new London of Europe.
I don't think the UK is going to get the same deal as Norway or Switzerland especially since the UK doesn't want to get involved in the free movement.
- Alex3917 10y ago> Berlin can become the new London of Europe. I heard there are a lot of tech companies that already bought land in Ireland as a hedge against the Brexit, and that's where a lot of the tech jobs are going to be going. (Albeit that's only one industry, and I doubt that the financial industry would go in the same direction.)
- robk 10y agoThey already have low paid customer service and ops in Ireland. They won't get engineers to move to there. Like finance guys and the promise of tax free living in Dubai - at the end of the day they don't twant o be in a backwater.
- kkennis 10y agoDublin is by no means a 'backwater' - Google and Facebook's EU headquarters both sit in Dublin, as well as large outposts of a number of global financial institutions. There's a lot going on in Dublin, not to speak of its history, accessibility, and affordability compared to the canonical 'tech hubs'. Let's not forget that there are many engineers who don't live in the Bay Area, NYC or London, for whom Dublin may be quite attractive. And while it may not be on the level of those three regions, it has a lot going for it in its' own right.
- lacker 10y agoFacebook has a bigger presence in London than in Dublin, although I don't think either is formally the "EU headquarters".
- beagle3 10y agoWhatever "formally" means, many US companies (Facebook and Microsoft are the best known examples) attribute their european earning to Ireland in order to enjoy a low tax bracket.
- darkr 10y agoGoogle and Facebook may well be headquartered there, but I suspect it's more for tax reasons than the Guinness.
- ropiku 10y agoThey do need the HQ for tax reasons but they wouldn't need to hire that many people (more than in London for example). They do that because they want to.
- puzz 10y agoTax reasons or not, people are actually moving there. A lot of my former colleagues moved to Ireland (from Croatia). Now Ireland has both: human capital and tax reasons.
- kkarakk 10y agoagain ireland>croatia does not equate ireland>london or whatever amazing place you're already living in.
- eva1984 10y agoAmazon has a big branch in Dublin too. Even before the whole Brexit thing, Ireland is already a center. I would say it is good time to bet in more.
- Chris2048 10y agoI work in IT in Dublin. There is a growing IT sector, but the larger companies here are a lot of support and infrastructure (Goog Amz etc). Not saying there aren't plenty IT jobs, but you can't look at size/investment alone without looking at what kind of roles are actually there. I'd also note that while companies get plenty tax breaks, actual income-tax is pretty high. Accommodation is pretty pricey near the centre too, though not as bad as London.
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- paganel 10y agoAs far as I've read London was quite the shit-hole in the late 1970s-early 1980s, it could very happily return to that status.
- threeseed 10y agoApple's EU headquarters is based in Cork comprising some engineering as well as support, financials. Dublin in particular is incredibly dynamic right now. And it's a lot better than where most London tech companies are e.g. Canary Wharf, Stockley Park etc.
- cylinder 10y agoTech companies buy land? Since when? Sounds like a silly rumor.
- cisstrd 10y agoIt's not about getting revenge, more so about making an example out of the UK to send a clear signal to other countries where nationalist anti-EU movements [1] are on the rise. If the UK does not suffer serious consequences, other countries might get some ideas about maybe doing the same. This is the dilemma, I don't think the EU does want the UK to suffer just out of spite, but they can't give them a generous deal considering EU stability. By the way: Berlin and London Stock Exchange markets want to merge, the UK leaving the EU is more of a problem in that regard http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-16/lse-agrees-to-merge-with-german-rival-to-create-european-titan http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-16/lse-agrees... (though they said they want the deal to go along no matter the vote) [1] Front national (FN) in France, Alternative für Deutschland (AFD) in Germany, Partij voor de Vrijheid (PVV) (Party for Freedom) in Netherlands, nationalist movements in Poland, Hungary, ... Election in Spain might also not turn out to result in a EU-friendly government... (seriously could go on...)
- powera 10y agoDoes the EU do anything anymore other than threaten "consequences" on various countries? No wonder everybody hates it.
- cisstrd 10y agoI don't think they threatened, they warned, they chose their words wisely and it's not just a problem for the UK, but also for Europe. It's normal that when you leave a single market of that size, basically abandon established trade agreements with such an important partner, that the consequences are severe. That being said it's not so much about "unfair consequences" or "punishment" directly, it's more about "not giving special treatment", ... "out means out", interesting times ahead.
- cm2187 10y agoNo they threatened. Obama threatened the UK of no trade deal. France threatened to flood eurotunnel with migrants. Germany threatened of no trade agreement. People, and Brits in particular, always respond to threats the same way: "fuck you!"
- roymurdock 10y ago> Berlin can become the new London of Europe It's not about the technology, it's about the people and the money, which is all in London.
- mkesper 10y agoFor now, that is.
- rorykoehler 10y agoMoney will quickly escape to New York and Frankfurt
- vidarh 10y agoAt least one major investment bank has told its HR staff it is planning to move, and will start processing redundancies or staff transfers as soon as possible. The people and the money started preparing to move months ago - the question is just how much of it. In any case, expect a lot of the money to pile into other currencies and not get spent as people try to ride this out.
- jacquesm 10y agoWatch the opening of the London exchange and review your comment.
- roymurdock 10y agoThe exchange is getting hammered, as expected, as equities are extremely liquid and the first thing that gets sold off during times of uncertainty/volatility. I think a more interesting metric will be the price of land in London and the change in the rate of flows in/out of the property market in the coming weeks. Less liquid, less prone to volatility, more indicative of long-term economic trends for the city.
- scotty79 10y agoFTSE 250 chart is just "frowny face" right now for me.
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- random_upvoter 10y agoWell I live in the EU and I can't remember ever voting in favor of punitive expeditions against nations that decide to drop out. If the EU really wants to go that way, it will only make more people wonder whether they want to be part of a transnational bully.
- gonvaled 10y agoThere has never been a drop out in the EU as of yet (not even the UK)
- gonvaled 10y agoCorrecting myself, partially: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Withdrawal_from_the_European_Union https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Withdrawal_from_the_European_U... Greenland and Algeria left the EEC (EU precursor)
- guitarbill 10y agoLook, it's not malicious or punitive, but just consequences. The UK has basically said "we don't want to pay the price for access to the common market". They had a pretty sweet deal. What incentive do the other countries have, who also pay for access in one way or another, to give the UK a better deal? None. The EU describing/following through the consequences of leaving isn't bullying - everybody knew what would happen.
- Ressuder 10y agoLook. You're renting an apartment with four other people and you're all sharing the rent. Then one guy decides that he only wants to pay the rent for the square meters that represent his room, but he still wants to get access to the kitchen, living room, bathroom and have free access to the fridge and free use of the stove. If you refuse, are you the bully?
- random_upvoter 10y agoThe parent suggested measures that went far beyond economic necessity. But whatever the response of the EU, it will decided by power politics that appear very distant from the control of the voter.
- vidarh 10y agoI know of at least one major investment bank that internally has told staff they will move their head office out of London.
- sbmassey 10y agoWhich one?
- estefan 10y agoDoesn't give names, but shows they're planning to move: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/f00c4a58-384a-11e6-9a05-82a9b15a8ee7.html http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/f00c4a58-384a-11e6-9a05-82a9b15a8e... The FT is reckoning on a split across the Eurozone: "But, as a small city with a population of less than 700,000 people, Frankfurt is seen as provincial and unpopular with staff. Dublin is English-speaking and attractive on tax grounds, but it is a relative backwater. The most likely outcome is that foreign banks with large operations in London will shift staff to a spread of eurozone locations where they already have operations — including Frankfurt, Dublin, Paris, Warsaw and Lisbon. That would fragment the financial services industry in Europe, potentially weakening the continent’s ability to compete internationally." http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/23d576b0-386a-11e6-a780-b48ed7b6126f.html http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/23d576b0-386a-11e6-a780-b48ed7b612...
- vidarh 10y agoI can't say I'm afraid, I was told so in confidence by someone in HR at a major one. They'd already delayed salary reviews etc. over the last few weeks for this reason too.
- gonvaled 10y agoThe EU needs to move carefully now: it must not punish, or slap, or threaten. Just accept the result, making clear the benefits of EU membership to the rest of the members, including suspending the benefits that the UK had. Calmly, but clearly. This will be good for everybody: UK will be happy being free (a feeling which will trump any disadvantage they may be getting by leaving the EU), and the EU can proceed with greater political integration.
- guitarbill 10y agoExcept the UK won't be happy, because the unhappiness and general feeling of helplessness wasn't caused by the EU, only blamed on the EU. Plus, you know, either way roughly 50% of the population is going to be unhappy by the outcome of this referendum.
- gonvaled 10y agoSorry to hear that: UK has been bitching about the EU for a long time, so I hoped that getting out would just be something to be extremely excited about. But my other point stands: I think this will definitely be good for the EU, if contagion can be avoided.
- nicky0 10y agoWe were never not free, that is what is so sad about all this. That was nationalistic bullshit to whip up the less educated in support of Leave. As a Brit I am in despair this morning. I'm assuming you are in US. Imagine the feeling you will have the morning Trump wins the presidency. This is the same feeling. A gut punch. My Facebook feed is full of very upset friends. It's really depressing. Fear, hate and ignorance won.
- gpderetta 10y agoThe difference is of course that US would have to endure Trump for 4, at most 8 years. The UK decision will affect generations.
- ido 10y agoThe financial center of Germany is Frankfurt, not Berlin.