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Is Scotland going to be exiting the UK next? Guess we'll see in a few years. Hard to know what will happen here, but I suspect once the UK (or what's left of i

• lossolo 10y ago
  Norway and Switzerland pay for that deals to EU fund. Funny thing is that if UK will get the same deal which i highly doubt (not as good as others after leaving - EU leaders already said that you can't have cake and eat cake) they will pay only 8% less than they pay as members of EU now.
• mcorrand 10y ago
  Gibraltar may want out too, they voted almost unanimously to remain and they probably won't want to be locked into their detroit by a UE border
  • smcl 10y ago
    I don't know why you're getting downvoted. Even though they semi-recently voted to stay in the UK, they were by far the highest area to vote "Remain" - 95.91%
    • mcorrand 10y ago
      My post was not bringing much to the discussion - I edited it to clarify my thinking. As British as the people of Gibraltar may feel, I don't think their patriotism will prevail over the prospect of being stuck from the main landmass by a border garded by a revengeful EU... Revengeful being the operative word, since there was always a crossing since the UK is not part of Schengen; but at least they were part of the EU.
      • Thimothy 10y ago
        I don't know if you have ever been to Gibraltar, but I have friends who have worked there, and the line that separates it from Spain is (always have been) really porous. If customs are implemented again it will just going back to the really good old days of smuggling.
        • mcorrand 10y ago
          I have no doubt things will keep chugging along, but the time and energy wasted through customs for the commuter working in Spain would be a major pain.
        • blablablame 10y ago
          I worked there. The lines sometimes took hours. Saw cars dismantled trying to find drugs/tobbaco. I left after 5 months as I couldn't stand the border anymore. Sure, if you need a visa, things will be harder, but really doubt the queues will be much worse since Spanish border control most of the days are spiteful as hell
  • antr 10y ago
    If the UK leaves, Gibraltar, or Scotland for that matter, can't stay. They would have to apply again for EU membership. It's a big mess for everyone.
    • untog 10y ago
      It's too early to even say that. No-one has ever left the EU before, there aren't even any rules drawn up. Absolutely possible that they could include the ability for independent regions to retain membership.
      • antr 10y ago
        > there aren't even any rules drawn up Yes there are, it's Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union. Scotland, Gibraltar, or whatever other country/region, will be considered as new applications for EU membership as the previous application was by a "different" country. This was reiterated by the EU during the Scottish referendum, this is no different.
        • gbhn 10y ago
          The EU is chock full of exceptions and asterisks and different arrangements for different territories. It is completely possible that in the withdrawal negotiations Gibraltar, for instance, could end up with some kind of unique status.
          • antr 10y ago
            Any application to the EU can be vetoed by any member state. In the case of Gibraltar, given it is seen as tax heaven and it is a well-known smuggling hotspot, I really doubt Spain will accept it as an EU member. IMHO, Gibraltar is going to really suffer from Brexit.
        • beefield 10y ago
          Technically, this is no different. However, in practice I can understand if EU people had a motive to try to keep member countries in one piece (Catalonia is next in line). And if EU now decides to take its gloves off, it can "easily"[1] tell that Scotland or any other part of UK is very welcome to stay in EU if they so wish. It would be interesting times on the British side of the negotiation table once Scotland, Wales, North Ireland and City of London decide to split from UK and into EU... [1] I am no lawyer nor politician, I have no idea how easy this would be from any practical point of view
  • sbmassey 10y ago
    Possibly, but I imagine they will wait and see what the border agreements arranged over the next two years look like first.
  • rmc 10y ago
    Would Spain accept an independent Gibraltar in the EU? Spain might offer union with Spain....
    • tonyedgecombe 10y ago
      I think that is very likely.
    • theoctopus 10y ago
      They've already called for a joint-control arrangement: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36618796 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36618796
      • rihegher 10y ago
        The original interview in spanish for those interested http://www.ondacero.es/programas/mas-de-uno/audios-podcast/entrevistas/margallo-me-preocupa-mucho-la-decision-de-reino-unido-de-no-seguir-en-la-ue_20160624576cdbe34beb2803303845b9.html http://www.ondacero.es/programas/mas-de-uno/audios-podcast/e...
    • airesQ 10y ago
      I think they would. From their point of view it would be an improvement over the current state of affairs. As the border controls would go down. (Even though I think that would be a remote possibility.)
  • Kequc 10y ago
    I've driven past Gibraltar. My initial intention was to go visit, but they have a significant border. The UK is outside of the Schengen area, so Gibraltar is there checking passports just like they will be in a few years when out of the EU.
  • mcv 10y ago
    Ooh, good point. Gibraltar is a very interesting case. As far as I understand, they really strongly want to stay in the UK and not join Spain, but they also really strongly want to stay in the EU, presumably because of Spain. That's a tough one. No idea how that will turn out. In my mind, I now see lots of bits and pieces of the UK becoming parts of Scotland.
• benwilber0 10y ago
  UK should just form their own EU but call it UK.
• dragonwriter 10y ago
  This may revitalize Scottish independence, since one of the arguments to keep Scotland in the UK was spreading uncertainty about Scotland's ability to stay in the EU if it left the UK.
  • smcl 10y ago
    This part has REALLY irritated me over last few weeks. The "ooh you know, EU membership isn't guaranteed..." scaremongering is particularly grating now that we are guaranteed to be out now.
    • ZanyProgrammer 10y ago
      Well it isn't, and that was indeed an issue with the previous independence referendum.
      • deleted 10y ago
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    • _asummers 10y ago
      Unfamiliar with UK laws, when is the next time that Scotland can vote for independence? Were they likely to do so again before this vote?
      • iainmerrick 10y ago
        There's no hard and fast rule (in fact the last vote was a little controversial; some claimed that it wouldn't be binding on the UK as a whole). At the time people were saying at least 5 years and more like 10 until a new vote. The SNP's absolute dominance slipped a little in the last Scottish election, making a quick followup referendum less likely. But this new result will put it right back on the agenda.
        • maaarghk 10y ago
          In fairness to the SNP they increased their number of votes. It's a quirk of the voting system that their seat share decreased. If there is a second vote I imagine the tone will be a lot less positive. Last time it was all about being a small, wealthy nation with the desire to stand up and make its own name in the world. This time, the previously small but poisonous anti-English voices in the campaign will be emboldened. It will be a vote to leave in panic rather than in confidence. Overall as a staunch supporter of Scottish independence this is nowhere close to what I want to see.
• muse900 10y ago
  I think that the EU will see the UK leave as a slap. So it will definitely slap back, especially Germany. I think with this result UK gave the ok to Germany to actually push UK's economy into a devaluation and then e.g Berlin can become the new London of Europe. I don't think the UK is going to get the same deal as Norway or Switzerland especially since the UK doesn't want to get involved in the free movement.
  • Alex3917 10y ago
    > Berlin can become the new London of Europe. I heard there are a lot of tech companies that already bought land in Ireland as a hedge against the Brexit, and that's where a lot of the tech jobs are going to be going. (Albeit that's only one industry, and I doubt that the financial industry would go in the same direction.)
    • robk 10y ago
      They already have low paid customer service and ops in Ireland. They won't get engineers to move to there. Like finance guys and the promise of tax free living in Dubai - at the end of the day they don't twant o be in a backwater.
      • kkennis 10y ago
        Dublin is by no means a 'backwater' - Google and Facebook's EU headquarters both sit in Dublin, as well as large outposts of a number of global financial institutions. There's a lot going on in Dublin, not to speak of its history, accessibility, and affordability compared to the canonical 'tech hubs'. Let's not forget that there are many engineers who don't live in the Bay Area, NYC or London, for whom Dublin may be quite attractive. And while it may not be on the level of those three regions, it has a lot going for it in its' own right.
        • lacker 10y ago
          Facebook has a bigger presence in London than in Dublin, although I don't think either is formally the "EU headquarters".
• j1vms 10y ago
  If the Scots were to leave now (which IMHO is much much more likely now), Churchill will be rolling in his grave. The Great island itself surviving virtually intact from WW2 only to break itself apart due to something like this. Though one could of course, consider this part of the ongoing aftershocks from WW2 which Britain never fully recovered from (i.e. final nail in the coffin of the Empire, its virtual indebtedness to the US), which led to what are probably the most US-like, capitalist-minded policies of the entire EU. Policies which, although making London the financial powerhouse it is, have undoubtedly alienated its rural areas, and have led to the referendum result we are seeing now.
  • broodbucket 10y ago
    If anything he was rolling over in his grave when 55% of the country's laws were decided by politicians the people did not elect.
    • antr 10y ago
      "by politicians the people did not elect"? What? Did you ever hear about the European Elections? What kind of argument is this? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2014_(United_Kingdom) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_...
      • blibble 10y ago
        the party in power in the parliament and the commission is the EPP, the UK is the only member state that has zero MEPs in the EPP. so the statement is accurate
        • toyg 10y ago
          That's simply because UK Tories decided their euroskepticism prevented them from joining their natural allies in the EPP. It's like Northen Irish people voting Sinn Fein were complaining that they don't actually sit in Westminster.
• adrenalinelol 10y ago
  Wishful thinking the the EU will be "better off". There are a lot of nations far more critical of the EU than the Brits. The EU has serious problems (over-regulation, bureaucracy) and if they aren't addressed, more nations will want out if they feel they are getting played (whether the economic indicators support said opinion or not).
• smegel 10y ago
  > all the compliance with EU regulations Including immigration? That seemed to be a big factor in the Leave vote.
  • Tomte 10y ago
    Yes. They would have to let all EU citizens live and work(!) in their country. Including Poles, Romanians, all those people the far right despises. They wouldn't have to let war refugees and asylum seekers in, though.
    • gonvaled 10y ago
      Which is exactly the same agreement they have now - except the refugees and asylum seekers, which have recently been regulated, but not implemented yet in most EU countries. The great majority of foreigners in the UK are coming from non-EU countries, and they are not refugees. Leaving the EU will not change that.
    • sebcat 10y ago
      > They wouldn't have to let war refugees and asylum seekers in, though Other EU states would give them citizenship (or residency) though
• cm2187 10y ago
  Short term it is going to be bad for the UK. It will have to renegociate trade agreements, this will create lots of uncertainty which isn't good for the economy, and also lots of market volatility. Long term the EU is going nowhere, it is dominated by socialist countries that will go the way of Argentina, a slow but steady decline (well under way). And the migrant crisis, which is likely only at its beginning (look at african demographic projections), combined with Brexit and the rise of populism all over Europe, will likely put such a strain on the EU that I think its days are numbered. So on the long run, I think the UK has probably made a wise choice.
  • toyg 10y ago
    What socialist countries, pray tell? The German chancellor is from the right. Spanish PM, same. France has an extremely unpopular socialist president who will be voted out very soon. The Italian government is nominally centre-left but has moved to the right in recent years. Socialism in Europe died in the '90s. What we have now are right-wing neoliberal elites trashing the place that social-democrats built in the '70s and '80s.
    • cm2187 10y ago
      Calling France and Italy "neo liberal" economies I think is pretty far from the reality. They are very much anti-free market, regulations heavy, high taxes, high public spending, high public deficit countries. And with the unemployment and low growth that goes along.
      • cm2187 10y ago
        I can't resist sharing this French headline: Les députés européens socialistes français estiment que la victoire annoncée du Brexit est "l'échec d'une Europe exclusivement dédiée au marché intérieur" Translation: the French socialist members of European parliament think that the victory of Brexit is the "failure of a Europe solely dedicated to free trade". Free trade is the only thing UKIP or the euro-sceptic tories want to keep from the EU. There is a fundamental cultural gap between the UK and Continental Europe countries.
• EGreg 10y ago
  I predict the UK flag will change in 10 years or less. Scotland will hold a referendum to leave the UK for the EU.
  • deleted 10y ago
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  • venomsnake 10y ago
    If I were EU - i would have agreement pre approved and ready to be signed - in the next 2 weeks.
• gonvaled 10y ago
  Scotland coming back to the EU would be great, but not easy, since lots of EU countries would be willing to prevent it in order to make an example for their own separatist regions (Catalonia / Basque Country in Spain, for example)
  • Scarblac 10y ago
    Not with the UK leaving, it'd be a great boost for the EU if Scotland were to join it. The argument doesn't extend to Spain, because it's not leaving the EU. Besides with the last referendum, Spain already said it wouldn't block Scotland entering the EU.
    • gonvaled 10y ago
      Madrid has already confirmed that they will block Scotland from entering the EU. Very sad.
• pbarnes_1 10y ago
  Scotland will leave the UK. Northern Ireland will unify with the Republic. FTSE 100 will open down 12-19%, which probably wipes out ISAs all over the place. This is history in the making. Decided by something like 1 million people as of right now. Just an absolute disaster.
  • misnome 10y ago
    I am curious why this was down voted? Slightly cynical, perhaps, but not completely disbelievable?
    • vidarh 10y ago
      Very believable to me. Sinn Fein has predictably already called for a vote in Northern Ireland. Calls are growing for a second referendum in Scotland. There are even those wanting independence for London... Scottish independence is likely - the question is just how firm the polls need to be before the SNP go there again.
      • mrweasel 10y ago
        The Northern Ireland potentially rejoining The Irish Republic is a bit surprising to me. Does anyone know if there's actually any chance of that happening?
        • vidarh 10y ago
          The chance is very low given the amount of unionists, but that won't stop this being used for what its worth to force re-assessments of agreements etc. Expect the Northern Ireland government to be given a slew of new devolved powers etc. over the next few years as concessions to prevent growing calls for it.
          • fudged71 10y ago
            What are the odds of violence popping up again?
• rdtsc 10y ago
  I think what was interesting was that in regional charts, I saw Scotland strongly favor staying with EU. I found that interesting. It probably played as a factor when they chose to stay with UK, because as such they also stayed as part of EU. Now that UK is not part of the EU, Scotland might think again about its decision to stay.
• iwontreddit 10y ago
  > Is Scotland going to be exiting the UK next? Guess we'll see in a few years. It's possible. The same with northern ireland. But more interesting question is which european country will leave the EU next. Hungary? Greece? Finland? The UK is a pillar of the EU ( 2nd largest economy and the 3rd most populous country ). Don't see the EU surviving without the UK.
  • Zelmor 10y ago
    These numbers only stand if you consider the current state of the UK. Without Scotland, no mines, no oil, less fish. England in itself, independent from the EU, cannot stand the test of time.
    • iwontreddit 10y ago
      > Without Scotland, no mines, no oil, less fish. England in itself, independent from the EU, cannot stand the test of time. England has canada, australia, new zealand and of course the US. England is part of the anglosphere. England will be fine. Also, the "mines", "oil" and "fish" make up a tiny portion of england's economy. England is mostly a financial center, not a oil or a mining center.
  • cygx 10y ago
    Don't see the EU surviving without the UK. As long a Germany and France are on board, the EU will survive in some form. The UK has always been an obstacle to tighter integration, and that obstacle will likely be gone soon.
    • iwontreddit 10y ago
      > As long a Germany and France are on board, the EU will survive in some form. They won't be on board much longer. The EU is nonsense at its very core. It is a corrupt cesspool where a select group of unelected masters rule over the unwashed masses. It is a farcical idealized fantasy. It doesn't exist the way the people idealized it to exist. > The UK has always been an obstacle to tighter integration, and that obstacle will likely be gone soon. Actually, the UK was a force for tighter integration. After all english and modern anglo culture is the dominant culture of the EU. It is just shocking how naive people are. The problem with the EU is precisely france and germany. To have "integration", you have to have a common language, culture, history, etc. So will french or german be the language of the EU? That's just the basic first level aspect of a "union". The only way the EU will ever work is if one dominant nation/ethnic group/etc conquers the whole thing and forcibly integrates the region. And that won't happen anytime soon. Greece and Hungary are probably next to leave soon to be followed by everyone else.
• thewarrior 10y ago
  I feel that the growth of Fascist sentiment worldwide can't possibly be a coincidence. Globalisation and it's benefits are being questioned. People are disappointed. Even this vote , is actually a vote of dissatisfaction against the status quo. They just managed to direct enough of that anger against the EU. I'd like to suggest the following three hypotheses and hear what you guys think : 1. As growth slows , liberal democracy ceases to be the status quo. It's much easier for a demagogue to whip up sentiments against the "other" when people feel that they have been left behind. 2. The media has always been a gatekeeper and helped keep the more extreme voices out of mainstream discourse. The internet breaks this dynamic and now disaffected majorities can coalesce across regional boundaries within a country. 3. The Western working class has realised that globalisation doesn't seem to be raising everyone's living standards. It's more of an equalisation where large numbers of people in Asia are lifted into the middle class while the western working class stagnates. This diagram shows a clear class divide in the voting: http://i.imgur.com/SneDXWa.png http://i.imgur.com/SneDXWa.png I don't have much more data to back these up so I'd be interested hearing any thoughts / anecdotes about such things around where you live.
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  • umeshunni 10y ago
    I agree with your assessment. I think I would remove #2 and swap #1 & #3 - i.e. The Western working class has realized that globalization hasn't raised their living standards resulting in (or as a result of) lower overall growth and this causes liberal democracy to cease to be the status quo.
  • ianai 10y ago
    You could almost call it a referendum on Chinese domination.
  • johnchristopher 10y ago
    I disagree with #2. The media have always said they are the gatekeeper (or the fourth power or any other labels) but it's a self assessment. Yellow press, tabloids, etc. feed off of extreme or stupid opinions that get labeled as `politically incorrect but true`. This becomes the visible mainstream discourse but time and time again elections and referendums show this is just opinions and sale driven editorial politics. The Internet didn't break this dynamic, it's just another media in the end (regarding the press) with a louder audience for the same ideas. Moreover the fragmentation of countries into regions doesn't follow from that. It comes from national politics. National politics that just get votes and support from following point #1. And inevitably leads to a blaming game (they are a lot of Nigel across Europe). I might be wrong and I don't have time to word my opinions like I would, sorry. Just my 2ç in the wee hour of morning. Ah. Strikes everywhere in Belgium today.