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If the polls immediately beforehand don't match the election results, why do we assume the polls are wrong? Maybe it's the election that's wrong - maybe it's be
by hackuser 10y ago
If the polls immediately beforehand don't match the election results, why do we assume the polls are wrong? Maybe it's the election that's wrong - maybe it's been fixed.
To be clear: I have no other evidence of a fix, nor am I talking only about this election. I'm saying, the question needs to be asked and the problem needs to be dealt with proactively through security and other means.
But here are some thoughts:
* Security requires making an attack more costly than its worth. How much are the results of a major election worth? It's priceless, existential even to some. The fates of nations and billions to trillions of dollars could be on the line. State intelligence services have many motivations to control the outcome. Is it even possible to secure something that valuable?
* Elections have been fixed for generations - probably for as long as there have been elections; it's certainly plausible that someone would try and succeed.
* The systems that need securing are not in a locked room, but spread across a nation, with a large number of operators. Again, very hard to secure. Finally, at least in the U.S., election systems aren't know for their security.
* If it was fixed, would anyone investigate? Would they even want to know? It would undermine the fundamental mechanism of democracy. What if the U.S. presidential election was fixed, what would happen? A do-over?
* Other than smoking guns, what better evidence could we have of a fix than a mis-match between pre-election polls and the outcome?
In short, there's a very strong motive, long-established precedent, and opportunity.