4 ms·
Well, since we have much more information about presidential elections (which happen regularly) than we have about brexit (which is mostly without precedent), y
by fdsaaf 10y ago
Well, since we have much more information about presidential elections (which happen regularly) than we have about brexit (which is mostly without precedent), you could argue that election 2016 forecasts are probably more accurate.
I don't think that's the case though. I predict a Trump victory on the basis of a very strong social desirability bias and an immense amount of silent resentment against current social justice orthodoxy, especially as it pertains to speech restrictions on campus and in the workplace.
- toyg 10y agoYup. I got some money on Trump too, and tbh I was tempted to double-down on it now that we know he's facing a 100% "establishment" "PC" candidate. I've gone through Italian politics in the '90s. We tend to be pioneers when it comes to political monstrosities.
- chroma 10y agoJust curious, but have you acted upon this belief and bet on Trump in the prediction markets?
- fdsaaf 10y agoI don't have that much confidence in my analysis. I'm an amateur.