4 ms·
The betting markets had somewhere around a 35% of Brexit. So it wasn't that unlikely according to the betting markets.
by selectron 10y ago
The betting markets had somewhere around a 35% of Brexit. So it wasn't that unlikely according to the betting markets.
- evanpw 10y agoI saw 15% before election data started coming out. That's pretty wrong.
- selectron 10y agoIt looks like the average was around 35%: http://predictwise.com/politics/uk-politics http://predictwise.com/politics/uk-politics Interestingly the odds went down pretty sharply as the election came closer, but it is not really fair to pick the lowest odds when evaluating how good the predictions were. But even 15% odds are not really all that unlikely, about a 1 in 6 chance. It isn't as though pundits were predicting leave.