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Why does the drop from p=0.32 to p=0.03 seem crazy/bogus? Isn't that what you'd expect as the probability distribution both narrows (with more evidence) and mov
by jonas21 10y ago
Why does the drop from p=0.32 to p=0.03 seem crazy/bogus? Isn't that what you'd expect as the probability distribution both narrows (with more evidence) and moves toward the 'leave' side?
- excalibur 10y agoIt's a big jump in a single update. Given that Remain has since pulled ahead in the raw total, this only makes it appear more questionable.
- hencq 10y agoThat Remain pulled ahead is somewhat irrelevant though. That seems to be mostly due to London reporting in, which was always expected to vote Remain. What's relevant (for this model at least) is whether the results are higher or lower than predicted per area.
- EGreg 10y agoAnd now Leave is ahead again