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That last update took the chances of leaving from 68% to 97%. Looks like a mistake to me.

danieltillett 10y ago
Why? Of course the model might be making a wrong prediction, but if I had a betting account betting on leave looks very tempting.
- ubernostrum 10y ago
  Maybe be glad you don't have a betting account. I wouldn't trust anyone who thinks they can model this to the point of literally attaching "p=1.0", this early on.
  - danieltillett 10y ago
    I am not much of a gambler, but with a spread like this it looks very tempting. The currency market boys seem to think out has won. Anyway using my imaginary betting account I will bet a million pounds - I will enjoy the cup of imaginary coffee I will be able to buy with my winnings :)
    - eru 10y ago
      You expect a lot of imaginary GBP inflation?
      - danieltillett 10y ago
        No I live in Australia so I have to covert my imaginary winnings pounds into imaginary Australian dollars to be able to buy my imaginary coffee ;) More seriously the model was right and the bookies wrong - it is relatively rare that you get an opportunity like this handed to you to make money with almost no risk.
        ubernostrum 10y ago
        make money with almost no risk I still think p=1.0 was not possibly achievable via any model at that point in the counting, which means betting based on it would have been an enormous risk. The fact that the bet would have paid off makes no difference; especially given how close the vote seems to have gone, a coin flip would have gotten it right half the time, and I doubt you'd say that a coin flipper who just declares 100% confidence has a good model.
        danieltillett 10y ago
        The model was almost exactly spot on, while the bookies were still offering 6/4 on for remain at the time I originally posted. The betting market really was not adjusting to the changing data and was way off on the real odds - this is quite rare. I certainly hope that the people who made money off Chris’ model follow his suggestion and donate to the Jo Cox fund.
        eru 10y ago
        The odds were advertised---but were they actually still accepting bids at these odds?
        danieltillett 10y ago
        I don’t know - they certainly were in my imaginary account :)
deleted 10y ago
[deleted]

Why? Of course the model might be making a wrong prediction, but if I had a betting account betting on leave looks very tempting.

ubernostrum 10y ago
Maybe be glad you don't have a betting account. I wouldn't trust anyone who thinks they can model this to the point of literally attaching "p=1.0", this early on.
- danieltillett 10y ago
  I am not much of a gambler, but with a spread like this it looks very tempting. The currency market boys seem to think out has won. Anyway using my imaginary betting account I will bet a million pounds - I will enjoy the cup of imaginary coffee I will be able to buy with my winnings :)
  - eru 10y ago
    You expect a lot of imaginary GBP inflation?
    - danieltillett 10y ago
      No I live in Australia so I have to covert my imaginary winnings pounds into imaginary Australian dollars to be able to buy my imaginary coffee ;) More seriously the model was right and the bookies wrong - it is relatively rare that you get an opportunity like this handed to you to make money with almost no risk.
      - ubernostrum 10y ago
        make money with almost no risk I still think p=1.0 was not possibly achievable via any model at that point in the counting, which means betting based on it would have been an enormous risk. The fact that the bet would have paid off makes no difference; especially given how close the vote seems to have gone, a coin flip would have gotten it right half the time, and I doubt you'd say that a coin flipper who just declares 100% confidence has a good model.
        danieltillett 10y ago
        The model was almost exactly spot on, while the bookies were still offering 6/4 on for remain at the time I originally posted. The betting market really was not adjusting to the changing data and was way off on the real odds - this is quite rare. I certainly hope that the people who made money off Chris’ model follow his suggestion and donate to the Jo Cox fund.
        eru 10y ago
        The odds were advertised---but were they actually still accepting bids at these odds?
        danieltillett 10y ago
        I don’t know - they certainly were in my imaginary account :)

deleted 10y ago

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