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I completely agree that the danger now is much more than it was 40 years ago. Having said that, there's plenty of blame to go around for everybody, and I'm not
by DanielBMarkham 10y ago
I completely agree that the danger now is much more than it was 40 years ago. Having said that, there's plenty of blame to go around for everybody, and I'm not sure there is much to be done about it.
The underlying problem is that technology is making smaller and smaller actors capable of more and more destructive actions. It's not just nukes. It's not inconceivable that one hacker somewhere could take down the U.S. electric grid. That's insane.
We're living in an extremely asymmetric world. Reducing nuclear stockpiles needs to be done. It eliminates the ability to create worldwide nuclear catastrophic damage with a push of a button. But if things got serious between major powers? They'd just build more nukes. You've taken what might have happened in 60 minutes and turned it into a 2-week affair. It's a move in the right direction, but I don't think it fixes anything. It's just better.
I am probably wrong, but my gut tells me the nuke threat may be overblown, at least in terms of a complete, species-ending event for mankind. We're like cockroaches, and I tend to believe some of us would struggle through somehow. I hope we never find out. But as to the larger issue of small groups holding enormous destructive power, I not so optimistic. I could easily see a situation where multiple catastrophic attacks in various sectors occur simultaneously. I am not so sanguine about our chances then. And I don't see any sort of policy change or treaty changing any of that.
Scary times to be living in.