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Even though the risks are enormous, any world power using nuclear weapons would probably need to be exceedingly irrational. World leaders want to stay in power,

Even though the risks are enormous, any world power using nuclear weapons would probably need to be exceedingly irrational. World leaders want to stay in power, and continue to rule over their subjects. I don't see it happening, except by: 1) misunderstanding/miscommunication 2) incompetence 3) desperation 4) particularly bloodthirsty individual Should we be confident? #1 was witnessed in the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki (mokusatsu incident) #2 Incompetence is pervasive in government (i.e. when the Stratfor leaks came, their internal wiki said of the FBI "good at breaking up used car rings. Confused by anything more complicated." Even corporations with close ties to government disparage the powerful 3-letter agencies without counter argument.) #3 yet to be seen #4 I hope it is out of the cards

hackuser 10y ago
It reminds me of investing advice from Peter Lynch: Invest in a company that any fool can run because, some day, one will. If we don't design our systems, Android apps or nuclear weapons, for those kind of people, we've failed.
zalg0 10y ago
Don't forget #5: detached, morbid curiosity combined with depraved abandon.
TheOtherHobbes 10y ago
>any world power using nuclear weapons would probably need to be exceedingly irrational. Leaders are exceedingly irrational. Stalin and Hitler literally killed millions. Considering that many generals in the German army considered WWII unwinnable before Hitler started it, WWII may have been one of the world's longest and bloodiest suicide notes. Combine that with a literal death cult, laced with bizarre fantasies about blood, iron, and the holy homeland, and you can see just how irrational world powers can get. Japan wasn't much better off. The bombs were a horror, but at least they cauterised imperialism out of the Japanese psyche for at least a few generations - at a huge cost. The US isn't much better off now. The reasons for war are more religious than personal - the pursuit of profit - but the millions who have died since WWII in US direct and proxy campaigns are no less dead for it. Russia? China? Let's see. It's clear that the only reason we've avoided nuclear suicide so far is blind luck - often the blind luck that put a relatively sane individual in a position where they, not presidents, emperors, kings, and politicians, could choose the fate of the world. Ultimately you can't win at Russian Roulette. You can only not lose - for a limited time.

hackuser 10y ago

It reminds me of investing advice from Peter Lynch: Invest in a company that any fool can run because, some day, one will. If we don't design our systems, Android apps or nuclear weapons, for those kind of people, we've failed.

zalg0 10y ago

Don't forget #5: detached, morbid curiosity combined with depraved abandon.

TheOtherHobbes 10y ago

>any world power using nuclear weapons would probably need to be exceedingly irrational. Leaders are exceedingly irrational. Stalin and Hitler literally killed millions. Considering that many generals in the German army considered WWII unwinnable before Hitler started it, WWII may have been one of the world's longest and bloodiest suicide notes. Combine that with a literal death cult, laced with bizarre fantasies about blood, iron, and the holy homeland, and you can see just how irrational world powers can get. Japan wasn't much better off. The bombs were a horror, but at least they cauterised imperialism out of the Japanese psyche for at least a few generations - at a huge cost. The US isn't much better off now. The reasons for war are more religious than personal - the pursuit of profit - but the millions who have died since WWII in US direct and proxy campaigns are no less dead for it. Russia? China? Let's see. It's clear that the only reason we've avoided nuclear suicide so far is blind luck - often the blind luck that put a relatively sane individual in a position where they, not presidents, emperors, kings, and politicians, could choose the fate of the world. Ultimately you can't win at Russian Roulette. You can only not lose - for a limited time.