7 ms·

I absolutely agree with his take on this; and I've echoed a similar sentiment in my comment history. The advertisers who advertise on TV are the biggest, slowe

• jwebb99 10y ago
  > TV money is absolutely going away -- the future of TV is commercial-free subscription VOD (like Netflix) No, the future of TV is like cable TV, but on the Internet (Subscription Fee + Ads)... like Hulu.
  • exelius 10y ago
    Being on the Internet breaks the advertising model (CPMs are much, much lower online versus TV ads due to the sales channels they use). Moreover, the Internet has conditioned people to think "Subscription = No ads!" Hulu isn't the future of TV; Hulu is the future of TV as envisioned by a bunch of major TV networks. I think HBO and Netflix are closer to the future of TV than Hulu is.
    • icebraining 10y ago
      Moreover, the Internet has conditioned people to think "Subscription = No ads!" Wasn't that the promise of the early cable TV? How long did that last?
      • dragonwriter 10y ago
        > Wasn't that the promise of the early cable TV? No, early cable TV was a way to provide signals from broadcast (and, thus, ad supported) channels to areas where, for geographic reasons, there was poor reception. (The CATV acronym frequently used for cable TV originated as an acronym for its earlier name, "Community Antenna Television" -- reflecting it as a model of consumers sharing an antenna to receive broadcast signal.) Premium, ad-free content, cable-specific programming didn't turn up until decades later. So, you've basically got it backward: instead of being something that originally promised subscription fees for no ads content but fell away from that, cable is something that initially offered subscription fees for access to ad-supported broadcast content but later evolved to include subscription-based (and pay-per-view) ad-free content available on top of the basic ad-supported content.
      • toomuchtodo 10y ago
        > 74% of Netflix subscribers would ditch the service over ads http://bgr.com/2016/06/22/netflix-price-hike-ads/ http://bgr.com/2016/06/22/netflix-price-hike-ads/
        • GFischer 10y ago
          That's not the most rigorous of samples (reddit users), I believe those results might be biased - I think commenters on sites such as Reddit or HN might be more likely to take this kind of actions. I'm not sure what Netflix's endgame is, but they're leaving a LOT of money on the table by going subscription-only.
    • maxxxxx 10y ago
      I am sure people will get quickly conditioned to "subscription = fee + ads".
  • fossuser 10y ago
    Even Hulu has an ad free version now for only a couple dollars more a month. I find it unlikely that anyone would choose the ad supported model when you can pay a little more to not have ads. Ads should only exist in free/no subscription fee content.
    • manigandham 10y ago
      > I find it unlikely that anyone would choose the ad supported model when you can pay a little more to not have ads. Consumers are very sensitive to pricing, especially for entertainment. > Ads should only exist in free/no subscription fee content. Why? It's a spectrum, not binary.
      • AJ007 10y ago
        I don't know what Hulu's numbers look like, but what % of US consumers who will spend $7.99 a month on something won't pay $11.99 instead to avoid commercials? If the gap was between free and $11.99 then I would very strongly agree with the price sensitivity. Amazon and HBO are already basically forcing ads in front of the shows now though it remains self-promotional. There is a substantial amount of value that could be unlocked if TV ad budgets moved to Amazon and Netflix. Irregardless of current claims I wouldn't be surprised to see some form of sponsorship appear on Netflix if subscriber growth starts reaching its limits. Quite honestly strongly merchandised brands like Disney should be paying for video distribution rather than licensing it out.
      • fossuser 10y ago
        On some level I think it actually is binary. If I'm paying for content, but that content also has tons of ads I feel like the provider is double dipping. Charging me to access the content and making money from advertising. If the content is distributed for free (as over the air TV originally was) then I understand the advertising supported model. If I'm being charged for it then I think ads are not acceptable under any circumstance. Consumers are sensitive to pricing relative to free, but when you're charging for both I suspect most would pay extra for no advertising.
    • jwebb99 10y ago
  • wincy 10y ago
    I did not have a Hulu subscription until Hulu began offering an ad-free experience for a premium. HBO Now is also ad free. I'd be curious to see the percentage of users choosing to pay more to avoid ads as it makes the entire experience so much better. Do you think they'll phase out this feature, or continually ratchet up the fees? I suspect they realize there's a market of individuals who have no tolerance for ads and want to capture that market rather than lose them to bittorrent or just total cord-cutters who can take or leave television.
  • dragonwriter 10y ago
    > No, the future of TV is like cable TV, but on the Internet (Subscription Fee + Ads)... like Hulu. No, the future of TV is like cable TV, but on the internet -- a mix of subscription + ads services, subscription ad-free services, and ad-free pay-per-item services. The difference is that, in the internet form, these services are more likely to be separately purchased rather than bundled on top of each other.
• rargulati 10y ago
  "What does TV advertising get replaced with? Snapchat. Recently, they’ve been injecting ads into their stories (these clips are on average about 10 seconds). A few things I found interesting about the implementation and observing others interactions with the ads: 1) At being 10 seconds, the ads are relatively short and contextually relevant. They flow more naturally in the stories than a television ad in linear programming. There’s likely strict quality control being enforced by Snapchat. It will be interesting to see them scale this. 2) As a user progresses further along in a story, does a user become more invested in the story (this is a thread of related snaps that Snapchat curates) or are they more likely to bounce before the end. In television, you’ve got the hook of the narrative keeping the user until the end. That would dictate ad placement. Recently Snapchat has done something interesting to combat this: giving the user different story paths to go into (from a given story point). 3) Most importantly, as a user, you’re able to skip the advertisements if you want (and go on with the story). This creates a pressure on the advertiser to create engaging and contextually relevant ads. The feedback of length of time played, number of times skipped, etc all create signals on creative performance (historically difficult to judge on television as it’s not an interactive medium). This is markedly different from the typical television advertisement. There’s the element of engagement of the user (skip or stay), the constrained view time, and constraint of being relevant to the surrounding content. This creates a competitive pressure that television ads haven’t faced. Edit: This isn't to say that Snapchat is final platform for this medium of advertisements. These learnings (and more) will likely be applied to most social networks that enforce constraints on short-form video advertisements.
  • srunni 10y ago
    Snapchat replacing TV advertising was addressed on Stratechery last year: https://stratechery.com/2015/old-fashioned-snapchat/ https://stratechery.com/2015/old-fashioned-snapchat/
    • rargulati 10y ago
      Ha! I'm a year late. Thanks for sharing.
  • jklinger410 10y ago
• jsonne 10y ago
  I'm a digital advertiser here, and I largely agree with your sentiment with one caveat. A good amount of the inventory for programatic video and display is just straight up bots. In some cases it even approaches 50% of inventory that just doesn't exist. With traditional forms of media inventory is a little more predictable.
  • exelius 10y ago
    Yeah; but that's just the deal with programmatic. Everyone knows that it's probably 50% garbage, so they just pay 50% less than they otherwise would. It's a game of moving averages and benefit per dollar. Fraudulent impressions are a problem, but ultimately I think that a bigger problem is the huge number of low-value impressions that just drive the price of the entire market down. When an advertiser has 30 ad slots on a page, not all 30 are really worth buying...
• nickoakland 10y ago
  How is this still true in 2016? Understand it was the case in 2011, but now? Still? Really?
• bgilroy26 10y ago
  Peer to peer is an important part of 21st century advertising. Peer to peer replaces the slow, impersonal work sales people and broadcast advertising campaigns would perform in the 20th century to educate customers and to negotiate the customer's needs and budget. Nowadays it is very easy to find people just like you online and ask them what they bought and whether or not they are happy with the product (although not everyone has trained themselves to do it). That neighbor to neighbor information dispersion replaces a lot of the function of broadcast advertising.
  • exolymph 10y ago
    > That neighbor to neighbor information dispersion replaces a lot of the function of broadcast advertising. Not from the perspective of companies, who are the ones paying for advertising — their goal is to get the word out about a specific brand or product, which sometimes aligns with consumers' needs, but definitely not always.
    • deleted 10y ago
      [deleted]
• pessimizer 10y ago
  Why can't advertising be replaced with honest advocacy? People federating to find the products that best serve their needs, and rooting out bad actors who express opinions for personal benefit? edit: Information is now free, barring firewalls. Consumer Reports had to rely on low bandwidth magazine delivery, and its transparency was limited simply due to how well it could communicate its own internal structure and activities. We can now create peer-to-peer systems where people could solely rely on information approved by people who they already trust, and that trust could be revoked at any time. In addition, people could recommend who to trust, and that recommendation could be revoked at any time. Unwanted advertising is just cynical manipulation.
  • eevilspock 10y ago
    I totally agree! Let me copy a previous comment of mine: Whenever a debate about advertising pops up on HN, many people defend it as the necessary way for consumers to find out about good products. Healthy free markets depend on informed consumers, but to think that advertising results in informed consumers makes little sense. I find it strange that a community of logic and science oriented people can hold such a notion. When communities were small, reputation was king. If your town had two bakers, everyone knew which one was good and which one sucked. No amount of advertising would fool the townsfolk into going to the sucky one. But this doesn't scale to huge cities with tens, hundreds or thousands of choices. We can't know the reputation of such a wide array, and we can easily be fooled by advertising. Internet-based recommendation systems make the grapevine and reputation scalable. I hope we see more innovation. Yelp is a start, but it fails miserably because if I rate a place 5 because I love very authentic Thai food, and another person rates it a 1 because they are used to Americanized Thai, the restaurant gets a 3 (I'm simplifying for illustrative purposes). In other words, Yelp's rating is useless to both me and the other person. I'm hoping for a future where recommendation systems and collaborative filtering get so good that they render marketing and advertising useless. (original comment: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10398290 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10398290)
    • pessimizer 10y ago
      It's because a plurality of the people on HN make a living from malicious advertising, and have to rationalize it. If there's a main thrust to anything that technologists as a whole are doing, it's to make direct, unmediated-by-unfriendly-interests communication between people as difficult as possible.
• l33tbro 10y ago
  The ad agencies are safe because brand is everything to a Fortune 500 company. TV or online - doesn't really matter, since big agencies are on a retainer and considered a department of a corporation or brand. Most of that coin goes on strategy, so the media spend on TV isn't really that big a deal. I know that's not the thrust of your comments, but I think needed it probably needs to be added. As for what TV gets replaced with - well I believe we're in a kind of awkward patch between platforms at present. One AR matures and reaches a critical mass it will set the course for the next couple of generations of advertising.