3 ms·
While I do agree with the broader point that nuclear power is probably a good idea, an estimate like "1 per million years" is, by definition, absolute bullshit.
by darawk 10y ago
While I do agree with the broader point that nuclear power is probably a good idea, an estimate like "1 per million years" is, by definition, absolute bullshit.
There is no way to reliably estimate an event that rare. And to publish such an estimate at all is insanely irresponsible.
- s_q_b 10y agoActually, if you have the data, estimating failure rates of reactors is fairly straightforward. Just use a Poisson distribution, the same as calculating MTBFs for other rare events. It's the same way one calculates the probability of being struck by lightening, for example.