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Causality is central to hard science. Its why we have concepts like dependent and independent observations. We split observable dimensions into these groups so

Causality is central to hard science. Its why we have concepts like dependent and independent observations. We split observable dimensions into these groups so we can change the independent variable and find out their causal effect on the dependent variables. The whole reason we have "experiments" is so an experimenter can deliberately change the system in a focused way, outside of its normal dynamics, to reveal the causal structure of the system under observation. You can't do this by passively observing the system. This is why we have experiments. This is core to the scientific method.

nonbel 10y ago
I don't think your argument addresses the concerns here. Here is an example: "However short we make the interval t, something may happen during this interval which prevents the expected result. I put my penny in the slot, but before I can draw out my ticket there is an earthquake which upsets the machine and my calculations. In order to be sure of the expected effect, we must know that there is nothing in the environment to interfere with it. But this means that the supposed cause is not, by itself, adequate to insure the effect. And as soon as we include the environment, the probability of repetition is diminished, until at last, when the whole environment is included, the probability of repetition becomes almost nil. In spite of these difficulties, it must, of course, be admitted that many fairly dependable regularities of sequence occur in daily life. It is these regularities that have suggested the supposed law of causality; where they are found to fail, it is thought that a better formulation could have been found which would have never failed. I am far from denying that there may be such sequences which in fact never do fail. Ic may be that there will never be an exception to the rule that when a stone of more than a certain mass, moving with more than a certain velocity, comes in contact with a pane of glass of less than a certain thickness, the glass breaks. I also do not deny that the observation of such regularities, even when they are not without exceptions, is useful in the infancy of a science: the observation that unsupported bodies in air usually fall was a stage on the way to the law of gravitation. What I deny is that science assumes he existence of invariable uniformity of sequence of this kind, or that it aims at discovering them." http://www.hist-analytic.com/Russellcause.pdf http://www.hist-analytic.com/Russellcause.pdf
- tlarkworthy 10y ago
  But modern physicists now say, I have done this experiment n times and can claim with 6 sigmas of certainty this is how the universe works. We are able to quantify noise in our signals, and sure, the end result is that nothing is 100% certain, but we still tease out causalities from the patterns in our noisy world. Uncertainty in measurement doesn't prevent us from observing causality.

nonbel 10y ago

I don't think your argument addresses the concerns here. Here is an example: "However short we make the interval t, something may happen during this interval which prevents the expected result. I put my penny in the slot, but before I can draw out my ticket there is an earthquake which upsets the machine and my calculations. In order to be sure of the expected effect, we must know that there is nothing in the environment to interfere with it. But this means that the supposed cause is not, by itself, adequate to insure the effect. And as soon as we include the environment, the probability of repetition is diminished, until at last, when the whole environment is included, the probability of repetition becomes almost nil. In spite of these difficulties, it must, of course, be admitted that many fairly dependable regularities of sequence occur in daily life. It is these regularities that have suggested the supposed law of causality; where they are found to fail, it is thought that a better formulation could have been found which would have never failed. I am far from denying that there may be such sequences which in fact never do fail. Ic may be that there will never be an exception to the rule that when a stone of more than a certain mass, moving with more than a certain velocity, comes in contact with a pane of glass of less than a certain thickness, the glass breaks. I also do not deny that the observation of such regularities, even when they are not without exceptions, is useful in the infancy of a science: the observation that unsupported bodies in air usually fall was a stage on the way to the law of gravitation. What I deny is that science assumes he existence of invariable uniformity of sequence of this kind, or that it aims at discovering them." http://www.hist-analytic.com/Russellcause.pdf http://www.hist-analytic.com/Russellcause.pdf

tlarkworthy 10y ago
But modern physicists now say, I have done this experiment n times and can claim with 6 sigmas of certainty this is how the universe works. We are able to quantify noise in our signals, and sure, the end result is that nothing is 100% certain, but we still tease out causalities from the patterns in our noisy world. Uncertainty in measurement doesn't prevent us from observing causality.