I don't see the ramifications playing out remotely like that. There'd be a diplomatic tit-for-tat leading up to sanctions, they wouldn't just be turned on at 0

I don't see the ramifications playing out remotely like that. There'd be a diplomatic tit-for-tat leading up to sanctions, they wouldn't just be turned on at 00:00 tomorrow. So there'd be perhaps a year. Sanctions tend to start with specific items and scale up. So it's a process, with a timeline, over perhaps 2 - 10 years. Plenty of time for significnt amounts of trade to move to india, Vietnam and the other developing economies.