6 ms·

I think you just pointed out the problem with vocational education. Going to law school is a vocational education, as is getting an education to become a mechan

by pappyo 10y ago

I think you just pointed out the problem with vocational education. Going to law school is a vocational education, as is getting an education to become a mechanic. Vocational educations take years (sometimes almost a decade) to complete. From the time you start your vocational education to the time you finish it, the market can drastically change (see Law and nursing). That lucrative job that you thought was waiting for you...isn't. What then? What happens to mechanics if cars become fully automated? Will we need that many mechanics?

hellbanner 10y ago
Yes, mechanics to build the machines to repair them in a fully automatic fashion. For a thought experiment on this, check out http://thelightsinthetunnel.com/ http://thelightsinthetunnel.com/ which explores the idea that eventually humans will stop inventing because we'll have everything we need
- Illniyar 10y ago
  But we wont need that many mechanics, probably just the really good ones (because there is now less demand))
- rpgmaker 10y ago
  Interesting premise, if not exactly novel, but some could argue that, excepting some needed advances in medicine, we do have everything we need and we're still not satisfied. It comes down to this, will humanity ever design/invent something universally recognized as being perfect? I don't think so, I will still try to check out the book though.
- darpa_escapee 10y ago
  The assembly process is becoming more and more automated. Some newer cars need to be taken to licensed mechanics, essentially squeezing independent mechanics out of the market.
riskable 10y ago
I don't think fully automated cars will have as drastic an impact on mechanics as 3D printed cars. A better question to ask is this: What happens to all the mechanics when getting an entirely new vehicle is cheaper than paying to have it fixed? The maintenance required of a 3D printed car will also probably be automated. There's no reason why we can't have robots replace tires, brake pads, and align wheels. Heck, they could even replace the parts that break or wear down by printing new ones on-demand. The only parts that will still need to be stocked after 3D printed auto parts take hold is glass windows, tires, and similar components that require special manufacturing.
- byw 10y ago
  I think long before 3D-printed cars, the shift to all-electric drivetrains will put most mechanics out of business.
- keenerd 10y ago
  We already know how that is going to play out. Go ask your local radio and TV repairman. (Although they weren't helped by the fact that transistorized designs simply didn't have parts that were expected to burn out on a regular basis.)
  - rasz_pl 10y ago
    oh, they do. Capacitors in modern switching circuits should be treated as perishable.
    - seanp2k2 10y ago
      And paying someone who knows how to fix them their rate to replace a $.10 part can cost more than getting a new thing. I dug a 19" UltraSharp display out of the trash, tested it, and found the problem to be some bulging caps in the power supply for the backlight. The parts cost less than a dollar, and it took about 4-6 hours of my time total. I was billing $90/hr 10 years ago to do PC repair, and we didn't touch electronics, so given the value of my time, it was definitely not worth it for me to repair this monitor, which is maybe worth $100 now ($60 if you can find a good deal). Since a car is so large and complex, I highly doubt that repair costs will exceed replacement costs in the foreseeable future. Disc brake pads are under $100 for a set of 4 for most vehicles. It's hard to find a car for $100 in any sort of road-going condition to make it more cost-effective to swap cars instead of doing the repair. A head gasket is different. On many older cars, the cost to replace it exceeds the value of the vehicle. Related: http://jalopnik.com/the-time-smoke-came-pouring-out-of-my-brand-new-ferrari-1782025180 http://jalopnik.com/the-time-smoke-came-pouring-out-of-my-br... This is of course aside from things like insurance, registration, bills of sale, etc which make swapping vehicles a big hassle right now. I honestly don't see this situation changing in the next 20 years, and the future I see is more in shared vehicle ownership, where instead of owning a car directly, one might join an organization for a few hundred dollars a month which provides access to a network of vehicles, possibly self-driving ones. Uber is, as far as I can tell, trying to be the first to do this, and they might even charge for actual usage instead of some flat monthly fee. BMW is also looking into this, but given they're a car company and not a tech company, I expect them to be badly beaten to market: http://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/access-over-ownership-future-consumption http://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/access-over-... (I'm sure there are other companies working on similar ideas as we speak).

by pappyo 10y ago

hellbanner 10y ago

Yes, mechanics to build the machines to repair them in a fully automatic fashion. For a thought experiment on this, check out http://thelightsinthetunnel.com/ http://thelightsinthetunnel.com/ which explores the idea that eventually humans will stop inventing because we'll have everything we need

Illniyar 10y ago
But we wont need that many mechanics, probably just the really good ones (because there is now less demand))
rpgmaker 10y ago
Interesting premise, if not exactly novel, but some could argue that, excepting some needed advances in medicine, we do have everything we need and we're still not satisfied. It comes down to this, will humanity ever design/invent something universally recognized as being perfect? I don't think so, I will still try to check out the book though.
darpa_escapee 10y ago
The assembly process is becoming more and more automated. Some newer cars need to be taken to licensed mechanics, essentially squeezing independent mechanics out of the market.

riskable 10y ago

I don't think fully automated cars will have as drastic an impact on mechanics as 3D printed cars. A better question to ask is this: What happens to all the mechanics when getting an entirely new vehicle is cheaper than paying to have it fixed? The maintenance required of a 3D printed car will also probably be automated. There's no reason why we can't have robots replace tires, brake pads, and align wheels. Heck, they could even replace the parts that break or wear down by printing new ones on-demand. The only parts that will still need to be stocked after 3D printed auto parts take hold is glass windows, tires, and similar components that require special manufacturing.

byw 10y ago
I think long before 3D-printed cars, the shift to all-electric drivetrains will put most mechanics out of business.
keenerd 10y ago
We already know how that is going to play out. Go ask your local radio and TV repairman. (Although they weren't helped by the fact that transistorized designs simply didn't have parts that were expected to burn out on a regular basis.)
- rasz_pl 10y ago
  oh, they do. Capacitors in modern switching circuits should be treated as perishable.
  - seanp2k2 10y ago
    And paying someone who knows how to fix them their rate to replace a $.10 part can cost more than getting a new thing. I dug a 19" UltraSharp display out of the trash, tested it, and found the problem to be some bulging caps in the power supply for the backlight. The parts cost less than a dollar, and it took about 4-6 hours of my time total. I was billing $90/hr 10 years ago to do PC repair, and we didn't touch electronics, so given the value of my time, it was definitely not worth it for me to repair this monitor, which is maybe worth $100 now ($60 if you can find a good deal). Since a car is so large and complex, I highly doubt that repair costs will exceed replacement costs in the foreseeable future. Disc brake pads are under $100 for a set of 4 for most vehicles. It's hard to find a car for $100 in any sort of road-going condition to make it more cost-effective to swap cars instead of doing the repair. A head gasket is different. On many older cars, the cost to replace it exceeds the value of the vehicle. Related: http://jalopnik.com/the-time-smoke-came-pouring-out-of-my-brand-new-ferrari-1782025180 http://jalopnik.com/the-time-smoke-came-pouring-out-of-my-br... This is of course aside from things like insurance, registration, bills of sale, etc which make swapping vehicles a big hassle right now. I honestly don't see this situation changing in the next 20 years, and the future I see is more in shared vehicle ownership, where instead of owning a car directly, one might join an organization for a few hundred dollars a month which provides access to a network of vehicles, possibly self-driving ones. Uber is, as far as I can tell, trying to be the first to do this, and they might even charge for actual usage instead of some flat monthly fee. BMW is also looking into this, but given they're a car company and not a tech company, I expect them to be badly beaten to market: http://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/access-over-ownership-future-consumption http://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/access-over-... (I'm sure there are other companies working on similar ideas as we speak).