> As an extreme example, assume you ran a prediction market that predicted the value of the s&p500 x days from now. Would you expect to make money based on thes

> As an extreme example, assume you ran a prediction market that predicted the value of the s&p500 x days from now. Would you expect to make money based on these predictions? The S&P already is a prediction market for the future value of the S&P. So no, there would be no additional information here. I agree that wisdom of crowds does not always work, but remember that this is not just wisdom of crowds, it's wisdom of crowds PLUS skin-in-the-game. All of the things in quadrant 4 are difficult to predict. I would trust the predictions of people who have put money where there mouth is far more than the predictions of those who haven't, and I think Taleb would too.