>Consider a business that needs to reason about the probability of a law passing, severity of global warming, or any number of other difficult to predict events

>Consider a business that needs to reason about the probability of a law passing, severity of global warming, or any number of other difficult to predict events. Prediction markets would provide by far the most accurate insight. Surely such prediction markets are a guarantee of corruption? That or I just don't understand - if a market exists that takes bets on human actions such as passing laws, how long someone will live etc, the betters will have a very active interest in doing everything they can to make a large profit, of which corruption alone is the most obvious target. I mean in a way you're right - it is wisdom of crowds, albeit crowds of people that "know" only because they're corrupted the final event.