Myth: you have any idea what the probabilities are of most outcomes in real life. Reality: you make a wild-ass guess, try your best, and try not to die if shit

Myth: you have any idea what the probabilities are of most outcomes in real life. Reality: you make a wild-ass guess, try your best, and try not to die if shit doesn't go your way. Read up on absorbing conditions per Nassim Taleb. People should be be aiming for anti-fragility, not maximizing impossible-to-calculate utility functions.