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TL;DR: Netflix changed everything when it switched from mail-order DVDs to streaming-video. Now, people find themselves (a) not watching commercials and (b) wat
by drostie 10y ago
TL;DR: Netflix changed everything when it switched from mail-order DVDs to streaming-video. Now, people find themselves (a) not watching commercials and (b) watching shows back-to-back. This has been lucrative for the company in terms of raw revenue, but not in terms of profits after costs: though the article is pretty murky on this (one part says that they made millions in profits; another says that they have a consistent cash-flow problem involving borrowing and more borrowing).
Netflix has several concerns up ahead which might make it difficult to survive operating at a constant loss. One is that Hulu and Amazon are encroaching on its markets, and competition tends to drive down profits. Another is that they don't own the vast majority of their content, which puts them at the mercy of the pricing of their suppliers -- and being downstream from a monopoly can also drive down profits. Even worse, their suppliers still have a revenue model based on this old advertising-and-cable-packages system, which Netflix is destroying by transforming the landscape: which is a disincentive to working with them; a channel which can broadcast a breakout-popular new TV show might keep that in-house to try to keep the channel alive, rather than licensing the show to Netflix for an alternative revenue stream. At the very least this will probably keep Netflix content about a season behind whatever's on TV.
Finally, Netflix is finding itself raising its own prices, which may lead to a flurry of cancellations from people who maintain inactive subscriptions precisely because they're pretty cheap. On the flip-side, it's not clear that they can sustain continued growth in their subscriber base; maybe at this point almost everybody who wants Netflix's service is already signed up. If those numbers don't keep up, then problems arise that are not too different from the problems with "borrowing from the future" in Ponzi schemes (albeit with a solid net positive revenue, which makes it morally very different -- in Ponzi schemes this is 0 and it is being advertised as a huge number, which is a huge lie -- no similar problem here). A similar "collapse" could happen, where the growth tapers, thereby skepticism spikes, thereby costs to borrow go high, and everything rapidly turns around from apparent success to apparent failure.
There may also be problems with the corporate culture, but while most of the article is devoted to the corporate culture, no clear message is given; it is apparently a somewhat ruthless place which is probably somewhat sad but is also sold as really exciting, because the ruthlessness only keeps the people who really care about what they're doing, which apparently creates good morale. There's a lot of other details like that which don't really amount to anything significant regarding what this "new world" is that Netflix has created, or whether it will survive the above growth pains.
- smhenderson 10y ago* Another is that they don't own the vast majority of their content* That's true now and probably will be for the foreseeable future but the content they do own is great IMO. For me it started with the obvious - Daredevil, Jessica Jones, etc. But lately I've dived into other things they've done and enjoyed just about all of it. Great example - River - a somewhat disturbing detective show with good acting, exciting action and just a deep insight into a brilliant but seemingly broken man. Even if Netflix has to evolve again to stay alive I hope the do so in a way that lets them continue making original content.
- distances 10y agoI think Netflix will face a problem of getting their customers find too well what they actually like, and not being happy with the content after this. Say, I loved River that you mentioned -- it's brilliant I think -- but can't really stand the superhero stuff now. And that's fine, but there are economic limits on how much of specific kind of content they can provide. I will obviously cancel the service if I run out of the programs that I find worthwhile.
- smhenderson 10y agoYeah, agreed. I think the article mentioned price hikes scaring off casual watchers and this almost happened with me but before I decided to cancel I took a deeper dive into the available content and found a lot I had ignored for a while (both NF original and licensed content). So now I'm in this pattern where I find a few things I want to try, like enough of it to keep me happy for a month or two and then slowly run out of things to watch. I let it sit idle for a while and then lather, rinse, repeat. But essentially every time I start to contemplate cancelling I tend to find something that makes me hang on for a little while longer.
- distances 10y agoOfftopic, but since you liked River, I'd suggest you to try Happy Valley too (if it's available at your location). It's also serious English crime drama, with some seriously good acting performances.