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So you're telling me you can only tell if it isn't a bubble if the market steadily declines eventually? Also how much should it steadily decline by before we're

So you're telling me you can only tell if it isn't a bubble if the market steadily declines eventually? Also how much should it steadily decline by before we're sure it's not some local decline phenomenon unrelated to the bubble? Whatever "bubble" means, it should probably only be used as a description of an abrupt crash in retrospect, otherwise we're always in a non-falsifiable bubble state. Saying "We're in a bubble" really just means colloquially "I think this market segment is overvalued", probably not much more than that.

coldtea 10y ago
>So you're telling me you can only tell if it isn't a bubble if the market steadily declines eventually? No, that's just its defining characteristic. You can "tell" by other signs too -- but they could be misleading. >Whatever "bubble" means, it should probably only be used as a description of an abrupt crash in retrospect, otherwise we're always in a non-falsifiable bubble state. That's the case with every phenomenon that depends in the final result for its definition. E.g. is an act X "beneficial"? We might have some heuristics, but we can only certainly know from its effects after it is completed.